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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Senior who wrote (57388)	6/9/2016 8:16:37 PM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

I've developed a new rule for the value thread: whenever Paul Senior bets on a macro trend, bet against it ;) Just don't follow this advice yourself or we'll all get confused. I convinced my parents to sell off 2 homes this year. High end in Miami, San Francisco, New York, Atlanta becoming more difficult. Multifamily cap rates near 4%. Homes in the lows 100s'k still going fast.

To: Paul Senior who wrote (57388)	11/10/2016 1:51:18 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78753

I'll continue to bet USA housing starts will increase over next few years. On the one hand, IF there is more deficit spending under the new administration, interest rates will rise (they say) and mortgage rates will increase. No matter that there might be demand for housing, people may not be able to afford them. Otoh, if the deficit spending involves lots of infrastructure spending (say vs military), then more jobs will be created and that trumps (pun, sorry) the mortgage rate increases -- imo, because more people will be willing and able to stretch to buy or upgrade. I'll step up for a few buys here; more if market takes profits from past few days' rally. I add to TPH and begin a seed position in CAA (focusing here on p/stated bv, which is relatively low compared to other stick builders), and DHI (focusing here on new home buyers and recent past years being profitable). My basket of homebuilders now numbers eleven, so I suspect I'm pretty well covered if there is latent housing demand that might get fulfilled over the next few years. ca.finance.yahoo.com