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Biotech / Medical : ARIAD Pharmaceuticals -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jesspro who wrote (4311)	6/10/2016 1:12:02 PM
From: jaybe	2 Recommendations Recommended By civic08801 mulanoon2007 Respond to of 4474

Definitely not. The biggest and most important differentiator with alectinib is PFS, 8.9m vs. briga's 12.9m. Unexpectedly, ALTA CNS ORR is now higher than alectinib as well, 67% vs. 61%. I'm expecting CNS PFS will also outpace alectinib. See below for my latest comparison. In any case alectinib is formidable, with 18 months head start, impeccable safety, and likely the best marketing engine in BP. With that said this is how I see briga's sales in ALK+ NSCLC for foreseeable future... 1L alectinib 45% brigatinib 35% (could be higher with BP partner) other 15% trials 5% 2L alectinib 30% (reduced by 1L use) brigatinib 25% (35% until 2020) lorlatinib 25% (by 2020) other 10% trials 10% Briga Peak Sales 1L = 12,600 pts. x 95% x 35% x $150K/yr. x 24 mos. = $1.26B 2L = 6,000 pts. x 90% x avg. 30% x $150K/yr. x 16 mos. = $324M Total Briga peak annual sales = $1.58B