To: username who wrote (28943 ) 12/30/1997 8:50:00 PM From: Teddy Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 61433
Excerpt: Top Stories: Networkers Gain, but Cisco May Be the Only Sure Bet By Kevin Petrie Staff Reporter 12/30/97 7:09 PM ET Networking stocks wafted higher amidst sleepy trading on Tuesday, but only Cisco may be having sweet dreams. Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) added 7/16 to end at 56 3/8; Ascend (ASND:Nasdaq) gained 3/8 to 24 and 3Com (COMS:Nasdaq) lifted 1 1/2 to 35 7/8. Despite the gains, the economic shadows creeping across the Pacific still have plenty of people worried about the sector's prospects. Which makes the leader Cisco look like the surest bet in the sector. One money manager, who asked not to be named, notes that investors seem to have eased on their tax-minded selling. Earlier this month investors were scurrying to pull out of money-losing investments and lock in a loss for the year, in order to offset capital gains they made elsewhere and reduce their net 1997 tax bill. It's not hard to spot the candidates for this practice. Ascend stock has descended 62% this year; 3Com is down 53.1%. Investors bashed the stocks when they spotted pockets of slowing growth in the networking equipment market. The research firm In-Stat released a sobering estimate earlier this month: The industry's overall rate of revenue growth slackened from 48% in 1996 to 16% in 1997. ..... By contrast, the titanic Cisco, which gained market share this year, has pleased its shareholders and mustered an index-topping 32% gain. A 7% stumble since its all-time high of 60 7/24 (split-adjusted) hasn't diminished Cisco's performance too much. In part, Cisco benefits from a simple phenomenon: Wall Street lavishes disproportionate rewards on the technology leaders. A recent J.P. Morgan report paints a simple picture: In late November, Cisco generated 31% of the industry's revenue in the trailing 12 months -- more than any rival -- and constituted 53% of the total market capitalization. And if an economic or technology downturn is on the way, Cisco may present the least risky investment. Arden Armstrong, managing director at Miller, Anderson & Sherrerd, is bracing for that scenario. .... In this sector she likes only the player with the most-reliable track records -- namely, Cisco. "What you really want is a company that is not going to miss its numbers," Armstrong says. On "faith," she has bought Cisco, which has matched or beat First Call expectations for seven quarters. Other networkers have disappointed. And some, such as Ascend, Armstrong says, may not be able to recover from the turns of another type of cycle -- a technology cycle...... Despite Monday's gains, most investors still believe that it's hunker-down time in networkerville.