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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9142)	12/30/1997 11:33:00 PM
From: Jon Tara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

Roger, I think much of your scenario is possible, but not sure I can see that far into the future in so much detail. :) And I do take exception with one element - I just don't see a bottom in 1999, but later, given the extreme turmoil that I expect surrounding the Y2K issue. I think it's going to be very real, there are going to be some very significant blunders and associated costs. I expect further world market instability, particularly in Europe this time, as the rest of the world (except for third world!) is not as well-prepared as we are in the U.S. Incidently, I just went quite long INTC, waiting to short AOL, probably not for a few weeks yet. If nothing else, I am supported (in a contrarian way) by sentiment here on SI - the INTC thread is lackadasical - nobody expects INTC to be back to 100 for at least a year or more - I think that it's possible in this rally (though I am only looking for a 10 point gain). I find the INTC sentiment very similar to that on the SUNW thread before it's rally into the late fall peak. In a few short weeks it far exceeded prices that were being predicted a year out on the thread. The regulars were flabbergasted, and unsettled, to say the least. :) The AOL thread is still almost universally negative, warning me that it ain't time to short it yet. :) My reasoning with INTC is that I don't believe we can have a real market rally without INTC participating. I do beleive we have started a real rally, and INTC will have to catch up. I think that investors have been waiting to see if it is real before they will jump into INTC. I am sure that there are many others like me that treat INTC with respect equal to the major averages - it is the only stock (OK, INTCW really) that is ALWAYS on my real-time charts and that I ALWAYS check before making any trade! (Many people use INTCW as a leading market indicator.) The TA looks good, with INTC just having done a positive MACD crossover, and these have been very reliable on INTC. I am looking for a rally to the 50ma (76) and probably the 200ma (80ish) at minimum. I do think that AOL is going to head to 100-110 at this point. Keep in mind that some nitwit analyst has a 140 target on AOL, as well...

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9142)	12/31/1997 12:46:00 AM
From: tcarnes	Respond to of 9285

dear roger i agree the market will decline in 1998 an adjustment is needed to bring p/e in proper line. tj.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (9142)	12/31/1997 1:37:00 AM
From: Michael	Respond to of 9285

Mirror, mirror on the wall? Which is the ugliest stock of them all? Zitel , Zitel you by far still the ugliest stocks of them all. Zitel continues to decline. My decesion to cover shorts on AOL, YHOO, and AMZN. Then plow it all into the one sure short of them all, is doing great. Zitel , the ugliest stock of them all.