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Politics : A Hard Look At Donald Trump -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Brumar89 who wrote (3355)

6/21/2016 9:45:39 PM

From: Brumar89

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 47011

How to Understand the Donald Trump Campaign By Understanding Real Estate Scam Artists

Posted at 3:36 pm on June 21, 2016 by streiff

Former RedState contributor Thomas Crown sent out an epic series of tweets today in which he perfectly explained how you can predict what Donald Trump is going to do by studying shady real estate scammers developers. He has put the tweets together for your enjoyment via Storify

Trump's Entire Campaign is a Failed Real Estate InvestmentHow the Republican Party Bought a Few Tens of Millions of Copies of the Art of the Con

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ThomasHCrown

Their first job is to get investors to buy into them -- their vision, their capability, their magic. They sell themselves first and always.

8:16 AM - 21 Jun 2016

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ThomasHCrown
So Trump falls back on one of the traditional escape routes: Make this all about the investors and not him.

8:17 AM - 21 Jun 2016

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ThomasHCrown
So the problem isn't the project and never the developer, it's a lack of investment, a stingy attitude, pick your horse-hockey.

8:18 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
"If you won't back this project enough to get over the ordinary bumps, I'LL DO IT MYSELF."

8:18 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
Invariably, when you hear that, it means a few things. (1) The project is in danger. (2) There's no easy way out. (3) The developer is thin.

8:19 AM - 21 Jun 2016

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ThomasHCrown
Now, the next step -- when the investors don't immediately fall for this garbage -- is something showy to prove the dude still can throw.

8:21 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
Maybe he puts $1m of his own money (NOTE FACE VALUE; $200M; PERSONAL GUARANTY) down to show he's not afraid to commit.

8:22 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
The likelihood of that million ever showing up is roughly half.

8:22 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
The point isn't to cover 1/12 of the shortfall. It's to convince the investors that the brave developer sees a bright light ahead.

8:23 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
Why else would he have invested [$1M/the first tranche of $250K] if not?

8:23 AM - 21 Jun 2016

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ThomasHCrown
Rational humans recognize what a sunk cost is. Trump, like most developers, is betting that he's not dealing with that kind of human.

8:24 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
A lot of [bankers/investors/elderly/middle aged marks] will be moved both by the personal investment and sunk costs and double down.

8:25 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
This gives the developer room to do one of three things. (1) Structure for bankruptcy/exit. (2) Turn it around. (3) Keep screwing up.

8:26 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
Remember: At this point, his goal isn't seeing the project to a successful conclusion. That would be great, but it's not his goal.

8:26 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
It's to stay alive and keep himself viable for the next project.

8:27 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
If you step back and look, he's saying that if you won't give him money, he'll give himself money and you won't be part of him.

8:27 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
That's the real tell: This isn't about paying the note or mitigating damage. It's about him. It's always about him.

8:28 AM - 21 Jun 2016

ThomasHCrown
We are at that stage with Donald Trump now.

8:28 AM - 21 Jun 2016