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Non-Tech : Radica Games (RADA) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: David who wrote (1568)12/30/1997 9:34:00 PM
From: jerald morse  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 7111
 
Gary - Wayne; It seems to me that since very few people could find product in the stores after about Dec.10th that maybe Radica shipped a bit on the light side for Q1. In order to better manage expectations I would think EPS more like Q3 would be in order. My friends looked in the last two weeks of Dec and never found product (and still no product) plus in the CC I believe David mentioned not wanting to get caught with a ton of unsold inventory as they had before. Therefore my bet is that Q1 EPS will look like .36-.42cents which still beats the heck out of last year and keeps us on the road to a $2.00 year. The toy shows will really set the tone for the year, particularly if buyers latch onto the "motion detector theme" as the next wave in toyland. Remember, '98 will mark only the first full tilt year for this product cycle and Radica is clearly the leader. We is top dog!



To: David who wrote (1568)12/31/1997 5:50:00 AM
From: Gary105  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 7111
 
David,

Thanks for the info. I just went through the 20F and found the auditors report. What I found most interesting in the 20F was the first table with the breakdown by games - it reinforces what many of us see (ie the importance of sports games 50% of sales from 5 games) and the diminishing importance of casino games (15% of sales from over
100 games). It would appear that rationalization of the casino line (ie slashing the number of games by 90%) could result in savings. It would also appear that theres room for sales growth at toys r us.

Best Regards,

Gary

Thread - the feedback many have given re. sales looks like a good indicator of radica's future given the importance of its sports games.

Skip - my comments re. seasonality of stock price were not meant to be
bearish; merely a statement of the trends followed by most retail and toy companies - and a caution to investors not to expect the stock to go straight up; that being said, imo buying radica now is like going shopping the day after Christmas - its on sale and I'm looking for a double by Q4 earnings release - my time horizon is quarters not days

Wayne - still not convinced about 0.50+ for Q1 given zero workers for 2 weeks but looking for a great '98. If products continue to sell, I'm looking for 0.45 in Q1, 0.35 in Q2, 0.70 in Q3 and 1.00 in Q4 or
about $2.50 for year. I'd take this with a grain of salt and will revise as year progresses - they have the production capability to do this and more - the key will be products and we are starting the year with products that sell as quickly as they can be stocked.