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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26572)	12/31/1997 11:57:00 AM
From: Meathead	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

More to think about... Yes it cost less to make a simpler machine, but bottom line, you cannot make as much on a $1,000 box as you can on a $2,000 box. Now can you convince me that margins are higher on $1,000 boxex than $2,000 boxes ? Key work BOX. a box is a commodity Margins and what is made in terms of dollars are two different things... you need to get this strait before you go long or short in the stock market. Michael Dell has made this mistake before, not going for the low end market, and I am betting that he will do it again. last time the stock droped 70% That was a restructutring charge related to pulling out of the Notebook market. Prove by any means that the drop in 93 was related to ignoring the low end market. DELL keeps talking about the record growth of their server business. You will probably correct me on this one, but I think servers were only 1-2% 18 months ago. that makes it easy for huge % gains Key point... this will continue for many more quarters which in itself will keep overall ASP's healthy as Desktop ASP's decline. Do you have any idea how fast the Wintel server market is growing at this point??? Just Web servers alone make this a powerhouse catagory. Your assertion that it's Just another area for potential weekness. is diametrically incorrect. Despite how beautiful Meathead claims DELL's business model is, GM's are great, but Net is what counts. in all of his expamples he fails to mention that EBIDA and SG&A will be the same or higher selling the same number or more units at a lower price. Here is what I call beautiful.... SGA%sls RD%sls OPEX%sls Net margin 94 Q1 12.40% 1.96% 14.38% Q2 13.02% 2.02% 15.08% Q3 11.76% 1.92% 13.71% Q4 11.72% 1.65% 13.40% 5.66% 95 Q1 11.27% 1.76% 13.06% 5.26% Q2 12.20% 2.07% 14.32% 5.18% Q3 11.31% 1.84% 13.16% 5.16% Q4 10.46% 1.49% 11.96% 4.39% 96 Q1 11.11% 1.53% 12.66% 4.87% Q2 11.54% 1.66% 13.21% 6.40% Q3 10.65% 1.63% 12.30% 7.16% Q4 9.70% 1.66% 11.38% 7.54% 97 Q1 9.27% 1.58% 10.86% 7.65% Q2 9.95% 1.71% 11.67% 7.59% Q3 9.79% 1.85% 11.65% 7.76% Do you notice a trend? Show me another computer manufacturer who has steady predictable internal cost controls that yield this kind of performance.... I'll give you a hint... There isn't one. Your convinced this will dramatically change in Q1. Based on what? Pure speculation and being sucked into the fear side of media BS. This is why so many shorts get burned... they don't understand what's really going on neither do the analysts... Dell owns 6.5% of the entire PC universe. They have a business model that guarantees success. Any weakness in the PC industry is quickly exploited for even greater gains at the expense of poorly managed companies... I assume you see no upside potential.. Dell has saturated the market... time for a management shakeup. Post something else besides analyst worries as construed fact. History is litterd with thousands of articles by analysts predicting Dell's demise, price wars, industry slow downs, PC's are a commodity, cut throat, no way to win..... just go to businessweek.com and start searching from 1990. Also, look at some real statistics and examine trends. It gives you a better understandig of where things have been and where they are going. Sub-zeros taking 40-50% of the retail market at xmas is peanuts... I don't think you grasp the size and scale of the overall market and where the profit opportunities lie. That fact that Dell is not targeting first time buyers is a good reason NOT to short the stock. Your logic is backwards... their numbers will continue to improve for the next several quarters simply because they are going after margin rich opportunities... Do you know in terms of units and dollars just how much opportunity there is for Dell in the mid to high end system catagory?? MEATHEAD

To: Jim Patterson who wrote (26572)	12/31/1997 12:41:00 PM
From: hpeace	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

jim, it 's the other way around. the Info. technology groups already have the databases. they need to finish buying millions of pcs. it's the upgrades to the oracles and etc. that MIS is slowing up on. I wish just once , you would quit trying to perform brain surgery when all you have done is read a few books on anatomy. The exxons, cpq, General motors already have the orcale databases. but, the aren't upgrading to 8.0 and 9.0 and 10.0 as fast as oracle wants.....one of the reasons is millions of more pcs need to be purchased and deployed....but, there are 10-20 other reasons. none of those reasons slow down pc purchases though. There is actually allot more required of a person than read a few books to make the wild statements you have been making. I'm attributing most of it to your youth and inexperince in Information Systems.