To: John Wang who wrote (1959 ) 12/30/1997 11:56:00 PM From: Gus Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 9256
John,I would like to believe so otherwise, this appliance will discourage PC software advances especially in 3D areas. I don't understand. One would think that software would be the largest beneficiary of higher PC market penetration rates (read:larger target market) because it typically has a high front-end, development fixed costs and very low variable costs (cost of CDs and manuals + marketing) once the program is ready to go. I disagree with Stitch regarding the low-cost PCs. I think the move is inexorable. The fact that you have industry-wide gluts in disk drives, DRAMs, monitors, and other peripherals only hastens the process. This does not mean, however, that those will be the only PCs that will be sold. The power users will still have the power PCs costing between $2000-3000, but I think the trend is intact: the fastest growth in unit sales will be in the sub-$1,000 PC segment. I agree with Stitch, however, that heads and media will continue to be the focus of most of the cost-cutting efforts. Here's a more positive outlook for the DD industry from Singapore:...U.S.-based market researcher Disk/Trend, in its latest reports, forecasts that the disk drive market is forecast to grow 18 percent to 149.1 million drives in 1998. Although the growth rate is strong, it is expected to be slightly lower than the 20 percent growth rate forecast for 1997.... Singapore's Disk Drive Industry to Recover in '98 japanbiztech.com The unit growth is clearly there. The big questions are pricing, margins and the additional costs of the industrywide transition to BTO where clearly, the PC makers are transferring large parts of their inventory costs to their suppliers....At disk drive maker Western Digital Corp., "the only way to accommodate this without a standard product design is to increase inventories, which in this situation - the low-margin PC business - is a very painful financial thing," said John Berger, vice president of marketing at the company's Personal Storage Division, Irvine, Calif. "The only other alternative is to have bad customer satisfaction and lost orders." Chain Reaction -- As 'build to order' fires up the PC business, can the supply chain stand the heat? techweb.com Gus