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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TCGNJ who wrote (26574)	12/31/1997 9:40:00 AM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

I see a slowing in demand from the AP situation. The slowing in demand will increase the price competition between CPQ and DELL. INTC announced a highly rummored premature price cut. I have not heard the official analysts reasons, I expect them to be 1) crush AMD. 2) Box builders want lower cost CPU's because their customers want them. 3) INTC may have an inventory problem. Low P MMX inventory and high P II inventory. Point is that lower priced chips are moving and higher ones are not. Solution, sell inventory at a lower price. 4) Why the problem ? 5) Despite how beautiful Meathead claims DELL's business model is, GM's are great, but Net is what counts. in all of his expamples he fails to mention that EBIDA and SG&A will be the same or higher selling the same number or more units at a lower price. 6) Lucy Painter at ML in her last CPQ update started talking about the RISKs in the quarter. while this maybe subtle, it is the first time she has mentioned RISKs for a quarter in quite some time. 7) CPQ's buyins to the channel are closer to 50% of the quarter, Normaly 25% 8) Weekness anywhere, is weekness. 9) I don't think DELL is taking marketshare and cousing all of this weekness. All of these relate to DELL. I am expecting the Q4 number to be on target. 1Q 99 may have guidance lower or they may miss. that report will be in May 98. If the market discounts this, then DELL's high should be in place. Don't put too much emphsis on these 3 trading days. Watch closely starting on tuesday. If the stock continues to rally from that point, My discounting prediction timing is probably off. I am short @ 89 and very patient. Jim