Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (520)	7/3/2016 10:05:52 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 668

One more interruption. For XBI, 2 down 4% days only has happened 10x. All 9 past cases were up at 13 weeks, all but 3 less than the current return 4 days after this time (12+% already). 3 out of 4 days up 3%+ is a first btw. Relaxing to lower thresholds gets a few cases with returns mixed. Getting 2 big down days (2%) followed by 3 of 4 big up days (2%) has happened only once, during the 2008 crash. The up days got to 5-6 straight btw. Returns were highly negative at 4 and 8 weeks. Barely + at 13 weeks. So it would appear we used quite a bit of our fuel already recovering the mini-meltdown from Brexit. Other indicators signaling more up though. Jon

To: Robohogs who wrote (520)	7/5/2016 1:54:59 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 668

I hate to say I had a system crash. Apologies. Best I can do quickly is to say that bios should probably give some back very ST but rally looks favorable longer term based on analyses I ran this weekend. I would prefer 1-2 days more up first though as that would set 50 RSI on daily and weekly basis. STD of XBI is extremely compressed here btw. As for mkt, looking at a combination of events which happened (5+% fall in 4 days, 5+% recovery from lows to highs in same period (i.e., less really as first part started down) and vix coming in sharply, SPY has only had this combination 12x historically. Mkt up 90+% of the time this coming week and LT numbers solid. My only caveat is extending 4 days to 5 erases results - BUT I wanted to test quick and sharp not slower and sharp (trying to catch fuller panic). Caldaro (one of most followed EW guys) has issued a buy alert last seen in Feb. He is still neutral until the highs are gone. As an aside, he was vocally bearish until 6-8 weeks ago and then figured a graceful way to swing to neutral. He is well-respected, even so. Finally, lots and lots of other analysis up supporting these conclusions. I did post lots of it in real time. twitter.com Jon