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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Angela who wrote (2672)	12/31/1997 12:51:00 PM
From: Larry Brew	Respond to of 6180

Angela, TI and DRAMS I was able to visit TI for a few hours, while in Dallas for the holidays, on the 22nd. I spent some time with a manufacturing manager over testing, a designer in mixed signal, and by luck ran across the president of TI asia/memories. Naturally his status puts him in a position of confidentiality. As I once reported to him when he was a mere department manager, dialog was mostly on a 'nice to see you again basis'. He did mention of the pricing pressures particularly from Korea for DRAMS. My personal opinion is if TI can't resolve the pricing pressures on DRAMS, the selling of the current memory joint ventures is a consideration. DRAMS are an integral part of the DSP solution, so I don't see a total walk away from this sector. I vision 0.18u solutions integrating DSP with memories. My dilemma is if TI does drop the joint ventures, will this be a positive or negative for their financial position. I can't see much profit comming from the sale based on drams' poor worldwide financial condition. These are truely my personal opinions. Please don't read in as actions to be taken based on my visit. They're from my vision based on TI's strategy while I was still employed and are purely speculative. Larry

To: Angela who wrote (2672)	12/31/1997 1:33:00 PM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 6180

[Word from TI and Gill Gates' 1998 predictions:] Angela -- I finally connected with TI's investor relations' department. Acer is a separate entity. TI provided the initial investment and continues to provide technology, but the earnings (or losses) are not factored into the balance sheet. That doesn't mean any decline in DRAMs doesn't affect TI. It just means Acer's gains and losses don't affect TI's numbers. She said it's clear TI will lose money on DRAMs in 4Q. I asked about TE's comment on divesting DRAMs and she said the company maintains a "no comment" policy. They don't speculate on sales or acquisitions before they're public. I then asked about the affect of the Korea monetary crisis more generally and she said it was too early to draw conclusions. There are two camps: those who say the economic crisis has caused DRAM prices to drop and flood the market making the situation worse, and those who say the crisis has caused the Asians to pull back on production and thus the imbalance will be righted. Again, she says it's too early to call. Based on your comments about who gets bailed out, I asked if the IMF or consortium of European banks had any say in who got relief and who didn't. She didn't know, but suggested I talk to Kip Bedard at Micron. I guess he's the pro on this particular subject. Anyone know him? It might be worth a call to see what he says. I'm not a MU shareholder, so don't have any connection to the company. Now, to another subject, the following article just came out, listing Bill Gates' predictions for '98. First on his list is DSLs. For those of us who came to TI because of their AMTX buyout, this is good news, indeed. Happy New Year, Angela, and all the rest! Pat <<< Bill Gates as soothsayer? By Jeff Pelline December 30, 1997, 4:15 p.m. PT Microsoft CEO Bill Gates's technology predictions for the new year are out: fast DSL connections and DVD will make a big splash in 1998, he says. While less appealing to the masses than, say, Mr. Blackwell's fashion lists, the chief executive's year-end prognostications are a hit with much of the high-tech crowd. Even naysayers should heed this: Gates says 10 of his 15 predictions for 1997 turned out right--not a bad batting average. "I have six predictions for 1998, or at least six that I'll share," Gates wrote in his syndicated column, distributed today by New York Times syndicate. "Four are repeat predictions that didn't quite come true in 1997, [and] there are two new predictions." The new ones: DSL (digital subscriber lines) and DVD (digital video discs) will take off next year. "Trials of DSL are under way in the United States already, although it won't be until late 1998 that substantial numbers of consumers get the service," Gates wrote. As reported earlier, Baby Bells US West and Ameritech announced commercial launches of DSL this year. Next year, SBC Communications and BellSouth plan to roll out the high-speed Net access over copper lines. Gates noted that DSL already is in use in Europe, Australia, and Singapore. Microsoft is partnering with some of the telecommunications carriers, such as Ameritech, to offer DSL. But it also has plunked down $1 billion in cable television giant Comcast, largely to capitalize on PC-TV convergence. More money for cable may be coming. (Interestingly, however, Gates didn't mention high-speed Net access via cable in his predictions.) DVD also will be a hit in the second half of next year. "DVD-ROM drives are starting to show up on high-end PCs now, and over time they will replace CD-ROM drives in all new PCs," Gates stated. "Eventually, they won't cost much more than CD-ROM drives, although for most of 1998 they will be in short supply." Gates's four repeat predictions for next year are that "videoconferencing and Net meetings will become more important, that people will widely recognize that PC technology can take on any computing task, that 3D graphics will become mainstream, and that the total cost of owning a PC will fall sharply." So what did Gates say he got right for 1997? Among the predictions-come-true: There will be PCs for sale for less than a thousand dollars, Net advertising will soar but not enough to meet the expectations of many, the Internet will keep growing in importance, and PC-TV convergence will continue. And guess what, Larry Ellison? Gates did not mention the network computer in his predictions. Better luck in 1999. >>>>