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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Don Earl who wrote (19317)	12/31/1997 9:04:00 AM
From: dwight vickers	Respond to of 42771

Hi Don, (off topic) There will be an impact on earnings from Asia. How much or how soon is the debate. I don't pretend to know. The problem with earnings is expectations, They are likely too high. I heard Matt Stichnoth (The Capitalist's Companion) say on CNBC this AM that the "Street" is looking for higher earnings growth in '98 than we had in '97. He said that was "nuts", and I wholeheartedly agree. The Asian problem is bigger than earnings. It's structural. Don't lose track of it, even if "they" tell us it's been solved. Agreed on "herd" mentality. Everyone hated AT&T at $30, but they love it, and can't wait to upgrade it over $60. Consumer Confidence tends to peak with the market, so you won't get a warning there. This is a time of annual market strength, of course. The IPO calendar is empty, so little competition for the investment flows that tend to pick up at the end of the year. But I would regard the last two days of rally on low volume suspiciously. Dwight

To: Don Earl who wrote (19317)	1/2/1998 12:51:00 PM
From: dwight vickers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Don, (off topic) Thought you'd be interested in my take on the 28 year high in Consumer Confidence that was announced Wednesday. 28 years would put us back in December 1969. We had peaked in May of that year at Dow 1000 and were part way into what was about to become a vicious bear market that would bottom in May, 1970 at about Dow 640. A 36% drop. I remember it well because at the time I was a 22 year old who was getting his first taste of a down market. When the Dow was bottoming in May it was so ugly that I honestly remember at one point thinking to myself that the market was going to zero. Honestly, that's what it feels like. (Now I know that's when to buy) Most important was that the market had peaked several months prior to the peak in CC. And even though the market recovered 85% of that drop within a year, it was only the setup for the worst bear market since the 1930's which was to start in Jan. 1973 and drop the market 45% in 19 months. That time the Dow wouldn't see new highs for 9 years and eventually it cost people 75% of their money, when adjusted for inflation. What I'm trying to point out is that in Dec.1969 things looked terrific to the public, as it did in Jan. 1973. As it does now. It does take time to turn the Titanic, but the turn isn't always obvious. (Never obvious really) No bells get rung as they say. Dwight