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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (6785)	12/31/1997 9:46:00 AM
From: Sawtooth	Respond to of 152472

Interesting article re: "Asian Opportunities". Apologies if previously posted. Would appreciate opinions on the probability of the following outcome (excerpted from article). <<By 2002, the GSM 900/1800 standard will lead the regional market with 35 percent of the total subscriber base, followed by code division multiple access (CDMA) with 24 percent.>> japanbiztech.com

To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (6785)	12/31/1997 10:10:00 AM
From: JMD	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 152472

Jim, I think the proposed reductions in Korean telecoms' capex are quite moderate given the severity of their economic problems--in other words, if the reductions remain in the 15% to 30% range, I would be delighted. The scenario that seems increasingly likely to me is a take-off on the "Peril brings opportunity" theme. Merrill Lynch is said to be contemplating picking up the pieces of Yamaichi Securities--they would be buying a company in tatters and doing it with a strong dollar- weak yen pocketbook: a bargain on a bargain. ML winds up with a major presence in the 2nd largest economy in the world for zip. Applied Materials is rumored to be scouting the landscape to pick up some bargains in SEA semi-equip companies; with more than $1 Billion in the bank, AMAT could come out of this DRAM debacle even more dominant than ever. The Q picked up a boatload of San Diego real estate during the very nasty downturn that started there in 1989-90--they were giving the stuff away, and the Q was happy to oblige. Doesn't the SEA situation and Korea in particular offer similar opportunity? Why couldn't the Q add to their handset production capacity for pennies on the won? Do a JV with Samsung, SK Telecom, whomever--buy 50% of the company in exchange for some crucially needed dollars and just crank up the volume? New IMF rules permit 50% foreign ownership if my understanding is correct. Short term, Korean and SEA situation simply have to hurt earnings. Longer term, I do no think it is out of the question that the Q will come out of this in terrific shape. Regards, Mike Doyle