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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: richardred who wrote (18314)

7/10/2016 7:04:02 AM

From: John Pitera

4 Recommendations

Recommended By
3bar
richardred
roguedolphin
sixty2nds

Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421

12 year old has our global banking system figured out...... and the really exciting news is that over the next 3 to 5 to 7 years investments returns of well over 100% a year will be available and achievable by the average old hand on Silicon Investor.... by shorting bonds and inverse yield investment products ..... also using appropriate risk/ leverage metrics and the magnificent banquet that has been laid on out table by the economic cycle.

youtube.com

I encourage everyone on SI to get a copy of Liar's Polker and it outlines in voluminous detail how Salomon Brothers, Citibank, Drexel Burnham , Lehman, Bear , Goldman, Bank of New York, Irving Trust etc. were able to reap a bond bull market that was 10 times greater than the equity bull market for 15 years in the 1980's through the mid 1990's... and by understanding how much money can be made in bonds as they move dramatically in price... both higher in price and lower in price...... as interest rates change and how glorious opportunities will again occur when bond prices move higher on a Secular Basis....

and Go GOLD and SILVER... they have vastly outperformed other US equity sectors this year.... and we have been prepared for this to occur all along the way.

Message 30336347

we were very bearish on gold and silver in 2013.

Message 28815056

To: Yorikke who wrote (13977)	4/4/2013 1:59:05 AM
From: John P	1 Recommendation Read Replies (2) of 18318

Hi Y, here is a chart........gold is in a very interesting and fairly complicated pattern.....it has many elements of a market that is in a descending triangle which usually one of the most reliable chart patterns to which would suggest that we will break the horizontal baseline support and in that case a reasonable target for the ultimate end of the decline would be about $400 lower than 1923$ price top out in Sept of 2011 and these jagged lows in say thw 1528-1535 range....... the chart looks lousy and I would not be looking to buy this support but would be shorting it on a break 2 day close below $1500 andwondering what will be happening in the global economy if it goes down $400 bucks from here. The very deep momentum generated on the RSI on it's Feb 2013 decline almost mandates that this chart is going go break down and the price of gold denominated in USD is going lower. The XAU is down 50% and is showing a double momentum buy signal, but a quarter of those companies are on the financial rocks....... if gold breaks down and we see a meaningful decline, then I do not know how you can say that TA is Nonsense. Our FED and the Central Banks of the world have driven us off into fantasy worlds........ but I would not throw the baby out with the bathwater......... Interesteing the XAU..... which is down from 228 to 128...... that chart is actually showig a double momentum buy divergence...... but remember its for the companies that staty in business.... John PS constance brown has written an excellent book on TA that has been updated in 2012.....she has a very interesting of using a methodology of using specifice ema averagers overlaid on the RSI and I believe she's on to something good. I hope to discuss her methodology..... and maybe generate a few books sales for her sometime soon. John

Message 28943607

JP

Message 30360976

To: richardred who wrote (18314)	7/11/2016 1:55:02 PM
From: The Ox	1 Recommendation Recommended By 3bar Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 33421

Nearly everyone has been reigning in their spending the past few years, governments, businesses, consumers. I can't help but see a lot of pent up demand that will be unleashed if we get over this negativity cycle that appears to be self reinforcing. There are some serious sea changes that have been steadily making their way throughout each of those areas. For all the decisiveness and vitriol spewing forth, there's a lot of positives that only get pointed out on occasion. Mortgage rates are low and that only helps to put more money in the hands of homeowners. Consumers don't approach buying the way they used to do. If a company approaches the future the way they've always done business, they'll likely find themselves under serious competition or lost in the wake of innovation and progressive thinking. As to the third area, governments, I prefer to leave the commentary to others but feel there's plenty of progress that can be achieved in this segment as well. I agree with John P's view that these latest market moves are creating, and have created, a beautiful long term setup. I'm not in the camp that the US will ever get down to negative interest rates and I see very little reason for anything like QE going forward. Rates will rise from here over time but not necessarily in a straight line. With today's rates so very low, a 200% to 400% move higher in long bond yields over the next decade should not be underestimated, IMO.