Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joseph Pareti who wrote (43455)	12/31/1997 10:40:00 AM
From: gnuman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

Joseph Re: Predictions. PII 233. Lehman Bros predicted PII 233 would be $270 at the end of Jan `98. (On 10/13/97 they predicted $300). They were surprised by the early price cut. IMO the price cut is in direct response to the K6 showing up on dealer shelves at super prices, and from top 10 makers. For example, IBM Aptivas are readily available with K6 233 at Computer City and CompUSA. CompUSA lists K6 266's available on their web site. I have been predicting that >15% of Compaq's unit sales would be sub-zero's. Recent announcements from a number of sources make me believe it will happen, (including the article in todays WSJ). I also predicted back in June, (see post 25000, Intel entering a new era), that the transition to PII will take much longer than Intel has projected. With the steep learning curve on all Intel CPU's, I am also concerned about Intel's ability to maintain GM's above 50%. I am amazed at the number of resellers featuring P55C 166's. BrandsMart is offering Compaq 166's with Monitor, printer, free training and service for $1198. They also have a similarly featured 180mHz mediaGX for $898! If the market and makers demand P55C will Intel continue to supply? A number of posts on this thread tend to count on the conversion to 0.25 Micron to get the costs down on PII. But, according to Lehman Bros, Intel management has indicated the 0.25 Micron process won't be available till 1999. "Intel management indicates the move to 0.25 micron will be NEARLY completed by year end 1998" Also, the new PII design for sub-zeros probably won't happen till late `98. I also think the PII 233 pricing at the top 10 makers is well below the 1000 piece price. These makers probably all have MFC clauses in their contracts that give them much better prices. I think Intel will come close to the latest consensus estimate for Q4. But, I think it's important to remember this is $0.12 below Lehmans estimate of just two months ago, and $0.19 below the consensus estimate of two months ago. Lehman now forecasts flat earnings 1997 to 1998, ($3.78/$3.80), and the street has lowered estimates from $4.69 to $4.11. These comments and numbers are my interpretations and opinions and may not represent actual facts. Regards, Gene