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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mikey who wrote (4561)	12/31/1997 12:57:00 PM
From: Ed Schultz	Respond to of 74651

I normally do not lurk on this board but since I have time on my hands I thought I would give it a shot. Last time I was on this board was back in August when the stock was shooting up to 149 and everyone was calling for a split. I stated then, correctly, that it would not happen this year and most likely would be postponed until middle of 98. I would like to amend that to be late 98. The question people ask is, "Is Microsoft a good investment?". The answer is unequivocally, "Yes!" for the following reasons: 1. PC sales are predicted to continue growing at 15-20% per year for the next 3-5 years (worldwide). This puts a floor on how much Microsoft grow. 2. By any (and all) predictions, NT 5.0 is going to be huge! NT5 alone has the potential of brining in $15B for Microsoft by the year 2000. These numbers are available from several independent sources. 3. Unix is rapidly losing market share. Digital, HP, KPMG, and even IBM now support and push NT. This is only going to escalate dramatically when NT 5.0 comes out. 4. Microsoft is making roughly $240M a quarter on its cash reserves. Either via short term investments, interest, or stock options. That translates to roughly .20 a share! 5. Employee stock options are NOT a drain on the bottom line. Because of the new SEC reporting rules, Microsoft now reports the cost of stock options in its financial report. Given standard accounting practice, it estimates that roughly 1/3 of its profits goes to stock options. (The formula used is rather complex, but from looking at it, it makes sense.) It is partially because of stock options that the company can maintain stellar growth as all of its employees are highly motivated to be successful. 6. E-Commerce (ie Interet sales) are predicted to jump from $16B this year to $200B by the year 2000. Who do you think is going to own a large portion of that? Even if they get just 10% that still represents $20B! Notice that none of the above mentions Win95, Win98, IE, DOJ, or Java. Because they simply do not matter. Given the results I mentioned above, with NT and E-Commerce alone, Microsoft should be close to $35B by the year 2000. Add Office, Back Office, Small Business Solutions, SQL Server, Win98, IE, etc for insurance only. Disclaimer, I will admit that the above scenarios are extremely optimistic. However, where possible I have attempted to use numbers either reported in financial statements or presented by independent companies. These are my views and opinions only.

To: Mikey who wrote (4561)	12/31/1997 1:21:00 PM
From: vinod Khurana	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74651

It's going down to $100 over the next five months so I would short it at the $132 - $136 level. Besides, the chart needs to fill the gap it left at $100 earlier in the year and the MM's are going to make sure that happens. From there, I think it is heading beyond $150 for a 2-1 split which will be long overdue but necessary as Windows 98 along with NTS and MS Office 98 and its recent acquistion of HOTMAIL will bring in the $$$$ no other company has figured out how to make. MSFT short it BUT watch those charts. Then load up. Good luck to all and lets hope MSFT brings us all some big $$$ in 1998 as it did in 1997. Happy holidays everyone. Enjoy your New Years day. V.K