To: John Pitera who wrote (18347 ) 7/26/2016 8:02:09 PM From: John Pitera 2 RecommendationsRecommended By dealmakr Hawkmoon
Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 33421 SPX Chart with GAAP PE ratio since Q3 of 2010... The SPX GAAP trailing price earnings ratio has gone above 25 recently as the USD index has rallied back towards the 97 level and WTIC has indeed rolled over in early June and has declined back to the $42.49 area which was it's initial impulse wave advance off of it's Feb 11th low at $26.05. Crude does not appear to have bottomed looking at it's momentum and the action of the forward futures strip. The US stock market is still benefiting from a global flight to quality and the relative higher yields of the US bond market which is holding long interest rates lower.... The lower interest rate environment works to support a higher PE multiple on Equities. The RUT and NASD and NYSE have yet to make new highs so the rally in recent months is not as broad as looking at the SPX and DJIA would indicate. . The LIBOR rate increase is typically a negative warning sign of deteriorating global liquidity...in this instance it appears to be driven by the implementation of new rules set to occur in October. As the summer progresses it makes sense to be on the watch for larger moves in the foreign exchange market...... although the LIBOR increase appears to be driven by some new technical rules that will take effect in Oct.The difference between Libor and the overnight indexed swap rate, a widely-watched gauge of fears over bank failures , has become elevated as a result.Analysts say the rise is not a harbinger of another financial crisis this time–at least now right now. Rather, it’s a series of regulations that will go into affect in October, making it less attractive for mone y market funds to hold some of short-term securities often issued by banks as an alternative to funding on the interbank market. When demand for those securities falls, it can push up the price of Libor funding. New Securities and Exchange Commission rules will require that prime institutional money-market funds that hold short-term corporate debt have to allow their share prices to fluctuate. The funds will also be able to suspend redemptions or add liquidity fees for investors that pull out their money when markets are volatile. That’s a response to the financial crisis, when the Reserve Primary Fund’s net asset value dropped below $1 a share . The rules are also reshaping the market, driving investors out of prime funds and into money market funds that hold government debt. In just the past week, about $30 billion has shifted from one to the other, according to Credit Suisse. On top of that, many prime funds are reducing their average maturities to avoid volatility around the October 14th implementation date, which means forgoing a small amount of additional yield for the sake of stability. Credit Suisse research analysts led by Praveen Korapaty wrote Monday that, “Prime funds’ desire to remain nimble largely trumps the spread that term bank funding offers, thereby lifting bank funding rates and steepening the Libor curve.” Last week marked 90 days until the rules take effect, meaning that the three-month commercial paper and corporate certificates of deposit to which Libor is closely linked now come due after the implementation date, according to Citigroup. That’s made prime funds hesitant to purchase debt due on the other side of the effective date, a trend that analysts say is likely to continue. “We expect the spread to go even wider from here before the October reform date,” wrote Citigroup analyst Steve Kang. JP