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Strategies & Market Trends : General market lab and commentary -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robohogs who wrote (567)	7/28/2016 5:16:05 AM
From: Robohogs	Respond to of 668

I am still tracking all 3 as viable. First choice remains top in days with high 50s chop. However, it now looks like analog from 2009 that fits best to xbi today is btk not xbi as both (btk in 2009 and xbi today) are stronger than rest. If so, we are entering June 2009 (crosses of MAs and TA setups are extremely close as is a false move earlier). The main difference is we are already at higher highs. In 2009 we stalled below previous recovery highs. Anyway, in this analog, fib extension at 64 and maybe 66 comes into play now. Or since we already exceeded recovery highs we may stall here. Considering I have 65/66 first target off weekly extension from 34 period stochastic crossing 50 and Wed move made that bounce look more real, this extension scenario is a close second or maybe even preferred. I just think we are overbought though. I have a third analog using purely TA which is Oct 2014. If so, we should stall within a few days, drop all of 5-6% (probably near 200sma which also matches my preferred 2009 analog) and then blast off to new highs In the 90s. The btk 2009 analog says 80s. The xbi 2009 analog says low 70s by end of year. Reading the content on Stocktwits, my gut says we need to screw retail shorts but also reset bulls. Best case to do this is to extend to 64-66 and then sharply retrace and break 200 sma by a few pennies. Another plus for the extension alternative. DNC attacked drug prices last night. But with Trump leading, and House looking safer for GOP, it might not matter. Move looked kind of blowoffish yesterday but first extreme A/D day in a while. So, watch 62 and 58-60 for signals for now. Jon PS alternative 3 suggests 45-60 for rest of year. I prefer the 2009 analogs!!