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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1997 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: craig crawford who wrote (9194)	1/1/1998 7:24:00 AM
From: Mama Bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9285

FIBR is really not a huge % of my portfolio Craig, so it's not a huge risk. I haven't had it since 20, so I kind of think that the slide from 20 to 2 is relevant. That run up happened during tulipmania in May 96 and is history as far as I'm concerned. You might ask Roger why he's involved with BROC, as that chart (at least to me) is very reminiscent of the FIBR chart. As far as the story that appeared in Barron's well, Barron's has had a couple of judgments against them for libel in the past, you can expect them to add at least one more for the FIBR story. Can you seriously, with a straight face, say that a microcap nominally worth $80 million (market cap before the story) was the most significant financial story that week? Just because a story appears on TV or in the press doesn't make it gospel. There has been one insider (not plural) selling some shares, and it was less than 5% of his holdings. He doesn't draw a salary, so that might have something to do with it. I also understand he got a little carried away with the companies future prospect last year, and bought some on margin. You can compare that with Enamalon were all of the significant insiders both draw a 6 figure salary and have sold upwards of 100k shares in 1997, while drawing salaries of 200k or better. The Enamalon offices are owned by the CEO and leased to the company. If the Enamalon product is so efficacious, why did the majors pass on buying the patent and let Dr. Fox scoop it up for $5000? 5k to Colgate Palmolive is probably less than they spend having their trash cans emptied. Why is Enamalon "selling" their product for $3 a tube, yet offering a $3.32 per tube rebate, and crowing about the market penetration they've achieved in their test markets? I might try a tube myself if I were in the test market, after all, they're even paying the postage to get me my money back. Oh, why is the FIBR insider selling important, but the CIEN insiders rampant dumping of 100's of millions of dollars of stock not in you estimation? The jury is not out on Avant!, it has come back and delivered the verdict. And the verdict is that the company was built on a product stolen from Cadence. The only thing in question now is how much money they'll have to pay, and how much time the CEO and the other six who are criminally indicted will have to face. Solv Ex was part of the same "mob manipulation" story that FIBR was involved in. Once again, I'm not sure how an alleged involvement of the "mob" with the trading of the stock involves the underlying company, but SOLV (now SOLVQ) was indeed a scam. It never had a penny of revenues in it's entire history. The main source of profit was printing an selling stock. SOLV was one of my best shorts this year, from 7 1/8 to 4 1/8 (yes, covered too soon), and I wouldn't have been aware of it had it not been for FIBR's inclusion in that story, so I can always call my profits from that trade a buffer for my (paper) losses in FIBR. You are correct as far as it being "put up or shut up" time for FIBR. But my correspondence with my sister concerning her involvement with beta testing of the new short haul DWDM product, the fact that they are selling for <0.25 TTM revenues and have a record backlog at this time, the fact that they have over 1000 employees and are hiring more, the numerous industry awards that their products have won, and everything I know about the company preclude me from believing the company is a scam. In hindsight, do I wish I had shorted at 8? Of course I do. This is one of the thing that has impressed upon me the importance of not going against the technical chart. But at this time on level 2 I see huge buyers coming in anytime the price falls to 2 1/8. If it falls below that level I will more than likely sell, despite my belief in the company's future. Especially since it should rebound this month because of the end of tax loss selling. I don't want to fight with you either. I do however think you got what you deserved for perpetuating the lies and distortions surrounding the company. Had the company issued a press release concerning your situation it would have concerned me greatly, however, if I didn't have the contacts I do, I wouldn't have a clue. Of course, if I didn't have the contacts I do, I probably wouldn't think the company had such great prospects. We shall see. Barb