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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Trader X who wrote (13985)	12/31/1997 3:09:00 PM
From: SMALL FRY	Respond to of 70976

Wow! You do introduce yourself with a bang. You have made a lot of people scurry back to the fundamentals as no one deemed it necessary to blow your theory/speculation out of the water as of yet... I guess that lends more credence to the sophistication and civility in this (AMAT) thread. I lurk more than I post and can't even imagine anyone coming in as strong as you just did... you do have ba$$s, I'll say that about you. 'Most everyone that have been on this thread for a while have been forewarned and have kept some ammo dry for the next go-'round, as Big Bucks said on his last "right on" prediction. So, let it be as it may. I'm long in a big way with cost basis below 27 and I still look forward to higher 30's within a few weeks, NOT 22. My funeral, I guess (if, big IF, you're right on as you claim to be). 'Nuff said. Thanks for the warning though. SF

To: Trader X who wrote (13985)	12/31/1997 3:23:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Re:Any sector that's down 40 to 60% in 3 months is definately in a bear market, no question. Kevin, The real question is when will the next upswing begin? In the Networking sector Bear Market in early '97, CSCO(the bellweather in that group) fell to 46 and recently hit almost twice that. Assuming AMAT puts in a similar performance, we should see no less than 50 by June, since this bear market began in October. My guess is that we will reach and exceed that target since unlike CSCO, AMAT's valuation is very compelling considering the next upcycle for semis, regardless of what transpires in Korea, is only about 1-1.5 years away. Safe bet IMO. Regards, Brian

To: Trader X who wrote (13985)	12/31/1997 4:24:00 PM
From: Dave Grady	Respond to of 70976

Kevin, It depends on your definition of "market"...a "sector" is not a "market". In fact the semiconductor equipment sector is one of the most volatile sector with in the market. The average stock will move 50% in a 52 week period. It is not unusual to see semiconductor stocks move more that 50% in a 52 week period. I would describe the recent events as a sector correction. Remember AMAT is up for the year. Just be sure to buy stocks like AMAT when they are down and are disliked by many "investors".