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Technology Stocks : Ascend Communications (ASND) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (29058)	12/31/1997 9:26:00 PM
From: MMW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Hi Glenn, I have position in CSCO and ASND. I sold 1/3 ASND at 25, which would allow me to offset captal gain I made in CSCO this year. So, I don't have to pay as much taxes. I think ASND's fundemental is improving and hope its stock value will have at least 30-40% appreciation next year. That is the reason I still keep 2/3 position in it. I think ASND market position is great. Only thing I wonder about is the excution. Hope they do not repeat the mistakes made in this year. Happy new year to all. Cheers, Mike

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (29058)	1/1/1998 8:52:00 AM
From: Elmer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 61433

Glenn, If we don't get an early announcement about disappointing earnings, a couple of things are now working in our favor. The first is that window dressing season is over. So is tax loss selling. That means that currently all weak individual and institutional hands have been replaced by stronger hands. Every institutional holder of the stock currently feels strongly enough about its risk reward potential to show it on a list of holdings sent out to its fund investors. This stock has been one of the year's poorest price performers and showing it on a list of holdings doesn't enhance job security unless you are right. Another thing working in the longs favor is that the stock has had a remarkable string of loss days. Someone posted here two days ago, that it had been down 11 of the last 13 trading days. So it's oversold and due for a reversal. A third thing in our favor is the preponderance of negative Wall Street opinion on the stock. Most brokerage houses have downgraded the stock over the last four months. Now, if we don't get an early and negative announcement on earnings by Monday, I think you can assume that they will make their numbers. If so, one or more analysts may upgrade which will could cause a lot of the shorts to cover in a hurry. The heavy volume that we saw yesterday is what you might expect to see when a brokerage house positions its clients in advance of an upgrade. The final thing in our favor is that the stock looks like it has built an eight-week base at 22. Its 50-day moving average (see chart from dbc.com) is about 26. The price has twice bounced off this line in the last month. Third time should be the charm. Last point. I owned Cascade when they were acquired by ASND. I remember that the take over (or take under as it was then described) saved my butt. If ASND doesn't make its numbers, they know they have to do a deal even if the price isn't great. Happy New Year to All Hang Tough David Regards David