Bill says DVD and DSL in 1998....
Looking Forward, and Back, at the End of the Year
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by Bill Gates The New York Times 12/31/97
A year ago I made 15 predictions for 1997, and enough of them came
true that I'll risk making another round of forecasts for the new
year.
First, however, let's review the record.
Five of my predictions for 1997 turned out wrong - or at least not
completely right.
I said the rate schemes used to charge for telecommunications in the
United States would change dramatically because of deregulation. I
thought heavy users of local telephone service would see their rates
rise while everybody would see their long-distance rates fall
significantly.
This didn't come true because the issue of how telephone service
should be deregulated got tied up in the courts. It's likely to
remain tied up for a couple of years.
I said videoconferencing would become important, but not as important
as ''net meetings'' in which documents and conversation are shared
simultaneously across corporate networks and the Internet.
I predicted these electronic meetings would ''explode in popularity
once people realize how readily and inexpensively they can use
networks to discuss and edit documents that appear on two or more
screens simultaneously.''
Optimism got the better of me on that one. Some companies have
started using Internet-based meeting software, but the broad
acceptance I expected in 1997 just didn't happen. I think it will in
1998.
Last year I predicted that by now people would widely recognize that
PC technology can take on even the most demanding and important
corporate computing tasks. Substantial progress was made, and
respected computer companies now offer PCs with six and eight
microprocessors, but widespread acceptance won't come until 1998.
I also said that three-dimensional graphics would become mainstream
for users of new PCs. This came true only to an extent. But the
popularity of 3-D graphics is growing rapidly, as evidenced by the
large number of new computer games that use them.
Finally, I said that the total cost of owning a PC _ including
training, upgrades and support _ would fall sharply for organizations
that configure and administer their PCs across a network. Again,
there's been progress on both the software and hardware fronts, but
now I realize it won't be until new operating system software and new
PCs ship in 1998 that the sharpest savings will be felt.
Despite the five mistakes, my other 10 predictions for 1997 turned
out right. Here they are, in summary form:
1.There will be great PCs for sale for less than a thousand dollars.
2.A backlash against the Internet will develop in the press because
so many wild promises made about the World Wide Web won't be
fulfilled in the near future.
3.People will scour the Internet for security and privacy problems
and find a small number that will be heavily touted, thereby helping
to provoke healthy policy debates.
4.Advertising revenue on the Internet will soar, but not high enough
to avoid disappointing a lot of people.
5.Despite these setbacks, the Internet will continue to grow in
importance. By the end of 1997, many people will recognize the
historic dimensions of the global interactive network.
6.Various attempts will be made to try to tax the Internet, but they
are unlikely to succeed if they single out the Internet rather than
taxing all forms of communication equitably.
7.The boundaries between personal computers, network computers and
TVs will get fuzzy as new machines begin to mix capabilities.
8.Laptop computers and other portable PCs will continue to grow as a
proportion of the market. As prices fall, many people who would have
bought a desktop computer will purchase a laptop instead.
9.Hand-held PCs will grow in popularity by more than 50 percent.
10.Most corporations will employ electronic mail systems by the end
of the year, and employees will typically send or receive e-mail
several times a day.
I drew some criticism a year ago for predicting that e-mail would be
commonplace by the end of 1997. Some people in the PC industry
thought I was predicting the past, because it seemed to them that
e-mail was ubiquitous already.
Actually, according to one survey, as recently as 1995 fewer than 30
percent of U.S. companies used e-mail. By last year about half of
U.S. companies used e-mail, at least for some employees. Often e-mail
was used for communication outside the company, but not within the
company.
In 1997, e-mail usage grew substantially in industrialized nations,
most of which have e-mail penetration rates similar to those of the
United States.
I have six predictions for 1998, or at least six that I'll share.
Four are repeat predictions that didn't quite come true in 1997: that
videoconferencing and net meetings will become important, that people
will widely recognize that PC technology can take on any computing
task, that 3-D graphics will become mainstream, and that the total
cost of owning a PC will fall sharply.
There are two new predictions, too. They go by the acronyms ''DSL''
and ''DVD.''
DSL, which stands for ''Digital Subscriber Line,'' is technology that
allows vast amounts of data to travel across standard telephone
lines. DSL, which is already in use in some places in Europe,
Australia and Singapore, allows phone companies to connect
subscribers to the Internet at speeds that may be dozens of times
faster than speeds using conventional analog modems.
For example, Sheraton hotels will begin installing DSL services that
allow a personal computer to receive 7 millions bits of information
per second, compared to the 28,800 bits per second that are typical.
Service trials will begin in Sydney, Australia, early in 1998 and
spread throughout East Asia and then to Sheraton hotels in the United
States.
Trials of DSL are under way in the United States already, although it
won't be until late 1998 that substantial numbers of consumers get
the service.
Finally, DVD will make a big splash in the second half of 1998.
''Digital Video Disks'' look like CD-ROMs or audio compact discs, but
they hold about 10 times as much information.
A DVD-ROM drive also reads ordinary CD-ROM disks, so it can play all
of today's multimedia software as well as compact audio discs. With
appropriate hardware or software, a DVD-ROM drive can play DVD-Video
movies, the new format that is being introduced for consumer
DVD-Video players.
DVD-ROM drives are starting to show up on high-end PCs now, and over
time they will replace CD-ROM drives in all new PCs. Eventually they
won't cost much more than CD-ROM drives, although for most of 1998
they will be in short supply.
By Christmas of 1998, I expect a quarter of new PCs to be outfitted
with the drives. If you find one under your tree, it should be a
happy holiday.
Questions may be sent to Bill Gates' by electronic mail. The address
is askbill(AT)microsoft.com. (Please note that the word AT in
parentheses has been used instead of the symbol, untransmittable to
many newspaper systems.) Or write to him care of The New York Times
Syndication Sales Corp., 122 E. 42nd St., New York, N.Y. 10168.
Questions of general interest will be answered in this column; Bill
Gates regrets that unpublished questions cannot be answered
individually. |
