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Technology Stocks : Orbital science (ORB) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Angelo J Cici who wrote (667)	1/1/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Dr. Harvey	Respond to of 2394

I have played this one before but must admit I was caught off-guard by this latest upmove. Is there anything substantive that caused this run, and are there any other satellite companies with similar breakouts?

To: Angelo J Cici who wrote (667)	1/2/1998 10:24:00 AM
From: RP Svoboda	Respond to of 2394

<<$90 is unrealistic, but $100 is more like it!! $3 billion backlog!!! The backlog is going to come out sometime! And if ORBI gets the GPS systems into the auto industry nationwide beyond Hertz and Oldsmobile, ORBI will soon grow from a $1 billion market cap to well over $10 billion easily!!! Don't underestimate ORBI & the auto industry because the potential is HUGE, and the company is positioning itself to get there soon with a possible monopoly (at least at first)!!! Angelo>> -------------------------------- I would not consider direct competition with Philips electronics (using Trimble receivers) a monopoly for ORBI. There are other producers that use gyros or simplified INSs to continuously track a solution. GPS is used to update the solution whenever 3 or more satellites are in view between "urban canyons." Additionally, there are other competitors that give detailed instructions using a voice chip instead of a map display. This allows the driver's attention to remain focused on the road. It is very difficult to use total backlog to determine revenues. It may take up to 10+ years to see those dollars on the books. The more important number is firm backlog. If I remember correctly, it takes ORBI approximately 2.5 years to burn through their firm backlog. IR can give you the correct number. Please do not misinterpret this. I am extremely long on ORBI - I simply do not want people to become dissapointed and sell out when unrealistic expectations are not met. Remember, management is targeting something around a 20-25% growth rate. I think it is dangerous to expect the market to increase the multiple to be on par with other comsat programs. I would rather see nice and steady earnings appreciation rather than an explosion in the P/E. My opinion only. Thanks. Boda