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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Micah Lance who wrote (57810)8/18/2016 12:36:23 AM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78751
 
GILD. I like it and have a full position. Unfortunately acquired at a higher price than current.

Shrinking market apparently for their major drug (Hep C cure) weighs heavily. And if they make an acquisition, who's to believe it will be good for GILD stock?

One analyst reported in Barron's 8/16 likes the stock:

Piper Jaffray’s Joshua Schimmer and team argue that with shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD) trading at a rock-bottom valuation, “little has to go right…to drive shares higher.” They explain:With a 7x forward multiple, little has to go right with Gilead to drive shares higher, especially in a market environment where other sectors feature ~5% earnings growth names trading with P/E multiples >20x. We believe that ongoing conversion of the HIV business to TAF based therapies, introduction of an FDC comprising of a 1/d unboosted integrase inhibitor with Descovy (TAF/Emtriva) along with stabilization of the HCV franchise will be enough to convince investors that a flattish earnings outlook can drive shares up to a modest 10x P/E multiple (~40% upside). Consensus estimates have essentially no contribution from bictegravir/Descovy, which can extend Gilead’s dominance from the 2-NRTI segment of 3- drug FDCs to the remaining 1/3 of the regimen. Reiterate OW, Gilead is our top large cap pick as a deep value name.
Too arcane for me. Gibberish.

I'll just go by the metrics I see and like. Of course, that's rear-window and requires some sort of reversion-to-mean. Maybe it won't happen with GILD -- it does not look promising to me at this point. But I am planning to hold through several more quarters.



To: Micah Lance who wrote (57810)9/28/2016 11:09:05 PM
From: Graham Osborn  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 78751
 
I looked briefly, and I don't like it. Here's why:



Price/ tang book of 22 for a company well into harvest time? Yuck.