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Strategies & Market Trends : Humble1 and Swing Trading Friends -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (24125)	8/22/2016 9:43:54 AM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 41062

Hi John, I believe you just nailed the variable to watch. Watch crude - specifically WTI. The USA has lost a lot of production and our refineries are geared to the light sweet WTI. That is why rigs are going back to work. The WTI / Brent spread will close. This gives a better price to our domestic producers ans keeps revenue from oil sales with in our country. As WTI gets in the 50 - 60 range - inflation in the US will hit that 2-3 percent. At the same time the rest of the world will be struggling with recovery. Few totally understand how much wealth is created within our country when we drill,ship and sell oil that comes from within our border. We benefit much like saudi Arabia with natural resource wealth. This will give the US the first growth in inflation and it will be good growth that spreads demand and spending across the USA. The fed will not move on rates (read that be very slow to rise) as other countries struggle with continuing negative rates. That will make our bond and equity markets stable magnets for international parking of money. By the time the weaker economies are recovering we'll see vibrant growth in the US and a global middle class that wants what we take for granted. The Kondratieff winter will yield to global spring and shuttered excess capacity resource plays will reopen. There may well be ne last dip after elections - but we are watching a recovery that looks back to the demise of legislated excess creditthat goes al the way back to 2000 and 2007. Housing has recovered,auto sales have recovered and in both sectors the excess capacity is long gone. Much the same in semi land and memory excess capacity. Buckle your belt and prepare for growth to slowly gain traction - the next big long term event. All in my humble and optimistic opinion. Watch the price of WTI!!! Bob