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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (14017)	1/1/1998 11:44:00 AM
From: Trader X	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 70976

I'll attempt to answer some questions here. First I'll show a longer term chart of AMAT that finds a significant pair of moving averages for it. Different stocks have different sets of MAs that are significant to it, because of that stock's own peculiar trading habits. In the previous chart I used the 10/20 day pair which are a default short term trading MA. In this 3 year weekly chart chart1.bigcharts.com:80/chart?time=10&freq=2&uf=32&lf=268435456&type=4&style=8&size=3&maval=10&state=0&compidx=aaaaa&symb=amat&ma=3&comp=&trans=0&r=chart&sid=614&sec=c&xyz=133937891&s=8559 I used a 10/20 week MA, which on a daily chart would be 50/100 days. I've found from experience that the 50 day MA is valuable for spotting major trend changes. During the last bull phase the stock never crossed below the 50 day MA except during some sideways movement last spring. During that move the stock went from $15 to 55. Now let's look at a 3 month view chart2.bigcharts.com:80/chart?time=6&freq=1&uf=32&lf=268435456&type=4&style=3&size=3&maval=25&state=0&compidx=aaaaa&symb=amat&ma=3&comp=&trans=0&r=chart&sid=614&sec=c&xyz=135258016&s=23929 The good news is the 25 and 50 day MAs are converging, which has to happen. The significance of the volume by price is that a lot of shareholders got in at $33, and are viewing at that price as a "break even" sell point. It just happens to also be where the 50 DMA is now at. Convergence of two negatives. Stocks do not reverse trend out of the pattern AMAT has set in the last 2 weeks. That kind of slow rise 50% back up is characteristic of a stock about to fall again. I believe that the drop to $20-22 will be a major buying opportunity and that it will immediantly pop back up near $30 afterwards, back to the 50 DMA. Aside: Normally I use Trendsetter software for charting, but I like to use Bigcharts online to avoid having to d/l data first. I can also use a URL to post instead of having to ftp a chart to my website to point to. Kevin

To: Gottfried who wrote (14017)	1/1/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: greg nus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

GM BB, Thread... Here is a strong indication that AMAT is about to pop above It's upper Bollenger Band. Breaking the upper Bollenger Band is a positive sign. An good indication of higher prices to come. A close above 31 would confirm it. It's happening on weak volume so the move could be somewhat suspect. We should know no later then close monday. However perhaps AMAT will set a new trading range of 30. to 33/34. Next major resistance is around 33. Remember AMAT must climb a wall of worry. Asia is prettymuch discounted in the stockprice. Strong sales of .25u equipment have not been factored in. Continues good news of the .25u sales will help climb the worry wall.