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Technology Stocks : Trimble Navigation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Yin Shih who wrote (2064)	1/1/1998 1:53:00 PM
From: arun gera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

GPS in Aviation Yin Shih: >>Basically, I don't think "free flight" will be a sales driver for at least 3-5 years.<< I agree. It is too big a change to happen earlier than that. However, I do not think Trimble is relying on "free flight" happening faster than that. >But many small planes that do this now do so using a hand-held GPS and TRMB doesn't have any competitive models in this market segment. >> Terra by Trimble was supposed to address that market, but has not had much success yet. >>TRMB does have models for the large planes, but they would convert anyway for operational savings and safety so this is not new or add-on business.<< Actually, it is new and add-on business for the next 2-3 years. I think about half of the US Commerical Airlines fleet still needs to be upgraded with GPS. Also, the CUGR product can be a biggie in military transport planes, which are typically 30-40 percent of all military aircrafts.(Total military aircraft in the world - About 80,000, half in the NATO countries). >>There are two things holding back more planes and pilots from adding a panel mount GPS unit. 1) the cost of panel mounts is 5-10x that of a handheld with no obvious gain in functionality, except that the FAA is willing to certify a panel mount for IFR operations where it isn't for a handheld.>> Is there really no performance difference between the hand-helds and panel mounted products? Would you use a hand-held for precision landing when WAAS becomes active? >>Thus the big market in hand-held aviation GPS units.<< At $1000 a piece at retail, at 40,000 units a year (four year obsolescence, 170,000 active planes), it is only a $40 million annual market. Or are you talking higher priced products? Arun Gera

To: Yin Shih who wrote (2064)	1/1/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: SKIP PAUL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3506

Welcome to the thread. I look forward to more informative posts from you in the future. I agree with you institutionalized "Free flight" is not in place today. It is subject of intense national and international debate and may be a long way off. I meant free flight in a more generic sense where commercial airliners can fly the shortest route from point A to point B. Isn't that the reason over 1000 commercial airliners have contracted or installed Trimble/Honeywell systems? I understand that AMR was one of the first because a large number of their routes are over water and GPS navigation is much more efficient. Trimble's 1997 commercial avionics sales are estimated to come in at about $20 million. I expect this to be between $25 to $30 million in 1998. This does not include general aviation and military aviation.