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To: Gary105 who wrote (1586)1/1/1998 3:39:00 PM
From: Wayne  Respond to of 7111
 
Gary,
After starting to scratch out some numbers (still have a long way to go), for the near term I am going to camp with you and your projection. Getting over the euphoria of Q4 and working with Q1 1997s worker capacity to revenue and trying to relate it to my perseption of Q1 1998, I think that $0.50 could be reached but will more then likely be the upper end of my estimate.
This is not my final opinion on Q1, just the start of my chicken scratch. If you take the revenue per worker in Q1 97 for the last 2 months of the quarter and base it on an averaged estimated # of workers for Q1 98, remove 2 weeks revenue for the holiday ( not lost, just moved to Q2 if I understand this correctly) and make the judgement call that the first month of Q1 will more closely look like an average of Q4 monthly revenue, $0.50 in Q1 98 is still doable on 54% gross margins and 15% SG&A (same as Q4) as it relates to revenue. This does not reflect construction expenses or increased addvertisments as well as other offsetting items. I've not gotten that far into my calculations yet.

Not assumeing a 1 month carry over of Q4 and figuring performance based on Q1 97 for all 3 (less 2 weeks), the numbers are closer to a still very respectable $0.35 vs. $0.12, still up 300%!

Again this is only a very UNREFINED VERSION of my guess for the quarter. I would have waited to post a more finial guess but felt the need to post someting based more in line with past Q1 analysis.
I am still very much of the opinion that $2.00 is a easy mark for 1998 and as I said after the Q4 release $2.50-$3.00 on the year may be what we see. Same as you, all in my opinion.

Will be awhile before I pound out a harder number. For now this is less euphoric and more of a both feet on the ground estimate, IMHO.

FWIW, I will be attending the show in Vegas in hopes of forming a better outlook of 1998 and will work on a more informed estimate after seeing the goods.

Best to everyone in 1998.
Wayne