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To: Sector Investor who wrote (29108)1/1/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Respond to of 61433
 
See BOLD below, from Forbes:

1/12/98 Forbes 122
1998 WL 2086246
Forbes
Copyright 1998 Forbes Inc.

Monday, January 12, 1998

On the Cover

Annual Report on American Industry Computers And Software Even in this
business, where change is the only constant, the past year had more than its
share of surprises.
BY Josh McHugh

A compelling measure of how quickly this industry is changing: More
than 90%of the revenue earned by $25 billion (sales) Intel Corp. during
1997 came from products that didn't even exist in 1996.

Can Intel keep up the pace? In preparation for a 1999 launch of its
next generation chip, called the Merced, Intel Chief Executive Andy

Grove removed Digital Equipment's Alpha microprocessor as a competitor
in the high-end server market. As part of a patent infringement suit
settlement, Intel got the Alpha chip; DECgot $700 million.

A beaten Silicon Graphics announced that it will start replacing its
own processors with Intel chips. Fiercely proprietary Sun Microsystems
announced in December that it, too, would write new versions of its
operating system to run on Merced.

Intel cloners still have a long shot at this market. Compaq is
leading the PC industry's move toward computers priced under $1,000.
Non-Intel chips are powering many of these inexpensive boxes. If the
market shifts from full-fledged PCs to slimmed-down computers-as many
people think likely-it will give competitors a new chance. To copper his
bets, Grove recently announced Intel would scale down its Pentium II to
power cheap computing devices.

The preliminary court ruling that stopped Microsoft from requiring
computer manufacturers to install its browser bundled with Windows is
unlikely to have much long-term impact. Meanwhile, Microsoft is trying
to extend its reach into networks of every sort. Watch for Bill Gates to

build on his $1 billion investment in cable operator Comcast. The latest
rumor about ailing Apple: It will modify the Mac OS to run on Intel
chips.

Database software companies Sybase and Informix all but self-
destructed trying to match Oracle Corp.'s steady sales growth. Then
Oracle Corp.'s turn came in December, when its shares fell 29% in one
day after it announced that full-year profits would disappoint.

Networking hardware company Ascend Communications' stock took a
beating after it announced a $3.7 billion merger with Cascade
Communications last March. At its deflated valuation, Ascend itself may
be merger bait. One rumored suitor: Lucent Technologies.


Network rival 3Com had problems digesting its $7 billion acquisition
of modem-maker U.S. Robotics. But the long-delayed arrival of an
industry standard for 56-kilobit modems should spark modem sales this
year.

A much faster communications technology, digital subscriber line
(DSL), is gaining momentum. DSL speeds data over ordinary copper phone

lines as fast as or faster than more expensive T1 lines. Possible
beneficiaries: PairGain Technologies and Amati Communications Corp.
(just acquired by Texas Instruments), which make DSL equipment.

---- INDEX REFERENCES ----

COMPANY (TICKER): Intel Corp.; Digital Equipment Corp.; Silicon Graphics Inc.; SUN MICROSYSTEMS INC.; Oracle Corp.; Ascend Communications Inc.; Lucent Technologies Inc.; Pairgain Technologies Inc.; AMATI COMMUNICATIONS CORP.; Texas Instruments Inc. (INTC DEC SGI SUNW ORCL ASND LU PAIR AMTX TXN)

NEWS SUBJECT: World Equity Index; High-Yield Issuers (WEI HIY)

INDUSTRY: Semiconductors; Computer Makers; Computers; Software; Communications Technology; Telecommunications, All (SEM CPM CPR SOF CMT TEL)

Word Count: 422
1/12/98 FORBES 122
END OF DOCUMENT



To: Sector Investor who wrote (29108)1/1/1998 12:03:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
See BOLD (reference to ASND):

1/5/98 CommunicationsWeek T21
1998 WL 2379630
InternetWeek
Copyright 1998 CMP Publications Inc.

Monday, January 5, 1998

696

Telepath

Technology Platforms

Carriers slow to use integrated access gear
--
Most new IA devices are still in the early stages of development and deployment
Paul Korzeniowski

Managing a multiservice telecommunications network can be a multilevel
headache. A carrier needs to install a frame-relay access device (FRAD)

to connect a customer to frame-relay services, a multiplexer for lease
lines, a channel bank for voice communications, a router for Internet
connections and an ATM switch for multimedia services. Managing the
hodgepodge of devices can be both time-consuming and costly.

To remedy that situation, public network equipment suppliers have been
working on a new generation of network access devices. Rather than
devices that work with only one type of service, this new hardware
operates like a multipurpose Swiss Army knife: It can connect a customer
to a variety of network services. ADC Kentrox, Portland, Ore.; Ascend
Communications Inc., Alameda, Calif.; Fore Systems Inc., Pittsburgh;
Sentient Networks Inc., Milpitas, Calif; and Vina Technologies Inc.,
Fremont, Calif., are a few suppliers that have been developing such
products.


These integrated access devices offer carriers and customers many
benefits, but they are still in an early stage of development and
deployment, analysts said. The primary suppliers, many of whom are
start-up companies, have been slow to deliver their wares, and carriers
have not been as receptive to the products as suppliers anticipated. But
this could change in 1998 as vendors get the early bugs out of their

wares, analysts said.

Technical advances have made it possible to integrate several
functions into a single device. At one time, a router was an expensive,
sophisticated piece of network equipment based on proprietary features.
Standards have evolved and such devices have matured, so it is now
possible for equipment vendors to deliver integrated access systems with
starting prices ranging from $10,000 to $15,000.

The new access systems can help carriers reduce operating costs, said
Tim Kraskey, vice president of marketing for core systems at Ascend. By
consolidating a handful of stand-alone systems into a single system, a
carrier can reduce floor space requirements and simplify management.

All bundled up

Deregulation is another force driving interest in the new devices.
Traditionally, carriers offered customers individual and separate
services: lease lines, Internet access, local service, long distance,
etc. Now, carriers want to bundle those service into a complete packaged
offering that lets them simplify billing and forge tighter bonds to

customers.

A prime example is Intermedia Communications Inc., a competitive local
exchange carrier (CLEC) in Tampa, Fla. The company wanted to broaden its
reach into new markets such as long-distance services. Lauren Brockman,
a senior product manager for local services at Intermedia, said the
carrier had been looking for network equipment capable of supporting
different service types, but discovered that most devices were designed
to work with one type of service.

Then last spring, Intermedia found Vina Technologies' T1 Integrator
which includes a channel bank for voice communications, an IP gateway, a
multiplexer, a FRAD, a channel service unit/data service unit and an
Internet firewall. Intermedia tested the system in August and found it
was simple to install and operated as advertised, Ms. Brockman said. The
company now has half a dozen customers taking part in the first wave of
its SingleT service, a bundled service supported with the Vina product.
Ms. Brockman predicted more than 100 customers would be using the
service by the end of 1998.

Founded in 1996, Vina first focused on T1 access. "Traditionally, it

has taken carriers longer to roll out new services-ISDN [and] frame
relay-than initially anticipated. Consequently, we don't think
leading-edge technologies like ATM will make it out to the edge of the
public network for a couple of years," said Vina president Josh W.
Soske.

Competitors such as Ascend, Fore and Sentient disagree. Robbie
Forkish, vice president of business development at Sentient, said many
carriers have already adopted ATM in the core of their networks and now
would like to push it out to the edge. "Adopting ATM from the customer
premise to the core would enable a carrier to reduce operating costs and
offer more sophisticated services, such as quality of service," he
said.

Slowly they turn

Despite such benefits, carriers have been slow to adopt the new access
products. One reason is because telecommunications sales cycles can be
excruciatingly long. "Many carriers still have the regulated-industry
mind-set and do not move as quickly as companies in other industries,"
said Vina's Mr. Soske.

Carriers are usually unwilling to take major risks when it comes to
new products. Because their services require universal availability,
they are often leery of incorporating new technology in their networks.
"These companies are cautious and often only feel comfortable when
dealing with established products with long lists of reference
accounts," acknowledged Mr. Soske.

Many of the new equipment suppliers are start-up companies without
much of a track record. "Sometimes it isn't as easy for us to get our
foot in the door as we would like," admitted Sentient's Mr. Forkish.

Some established equipment suppliers do not see much need for the new
access devices. "These companies are just delivering enhanced routers or
FRADs. The talk of a new generation of access systems is just marketing
hype," said Ashare Baig, a product line manager at Ascom Timeplex Inc.,
a Woodcliff Lake, N.J., network equipment supplier.

That claim may be overstated. Jennifer Pigg, vice president for data
communications at the Yankee Group, a Boston-based market research firm,
said there are differences between the newer products and those from

established vendors. "These vendors have made significant investments in
their ASICs [application specific integrated circuits], so a lot of
their routing can be done with software," she explained.

The result is that network changes are simpler to make. When a company
changes its network services these days, a hardware change is often
required. The carrier may have to reconfigure software, move cables,
swap multiplexer channels and add new cards to the device. The process
can take anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. With the new devices,
changes can be made via software and can be completed in only a couple
of hours.

Still, not all suppliers see a need for new devices. "How often will a
user need to change from a lease line to a frame-relay service?" asked
Adam Lourant, an assistant vice president of product management at
Newbridge.

While the access systems are targeting a need, carriers may be looking
at other issues. "With networks becoming more complex, carriers want to
limit the number of suppliers they deal with and work with companies
that offer a strong line of products rather than a target solution," Mr.

Lourant said.

Not surprisingly, the smaller companies have a different view.
"Carriers have the networking expertise needed to work with multiple
vendors and are willing to work best-of-breed products," said Sentient's
Mr. Forkish.

But to date, they have been moving to these new systems at a slow
pace. Right now, Vina has about half a dozen customers. Sentient is
also working with only a couple of carriers. Only Ascend claims to have
shipped hundreds of its access units.

Despite the current problems, there are reasons to expect that sales
of the new products will pick up in 1998. "These new access devices
have the potential to help carriers cut their operating costs," Ms.
Pigg said. "Once the suppliers convince carriers their products operate
as advertised, I expect sales of these systems will rise
significantly."

Paul Korzeniowski is a free-lance writer in Sudbury, Mass., who
specializes in networking issues. E-mail reactions to this article to
telepath@cmp.com.

---- INDEX REFERENCES ----

COMPANY (TICKER): ADC Telecommunications Inc.; Ascend Communications Inc.; Fore Systems Inc. (ADCT ASND FORE)

INDUSTRY: Communications Technology; Telecommunications, All (CMT TEL)

Word Count: 1237
1/5/98 COMMWK T21
END OF DOCUMENT



To: Sector Investor who wrote (29108)1/1/1998 12:05:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Respond to of 61433
 
See BOLD below (reference to ASND):

1/5/98 CommunicationsWeek 8
1998 WL 2379647
InternetWeek
Copyright 1998 CMP Publications Inc.

Monday, January 5, 1998

696

News & Analysis

Outlook 1998

Vendor Seesaw Skews Forecasts
--
Product problems, leadership changes keep Wall Street guessing
John T. Mulqueen

Predicting the success of computer and networking vendors in 1998 is
likely to be more challenging than ever following the wild swings of

1997.

Some companies were victims of their own mistakes, such as Ascend
Communications Inc. having to take charges for 56K modem returns and
3Com with its inventory problems following the merger with U.S.
Robotics.
Some others, notably Informix and AT&T, were beset by
management problems. Others were blindsided by Asian currency problems,
most notably Oracle, and those problems may have a broad impact in 1998.

Ups And Downs

AT&T had its share of problems. It stumbled through embarrassing
management changes when John Walter quit as president after less than a
year on the job. The company also saw merger talks with SBC
Communications Corp. fall apart. It began to repair some of the damage
when it hired Michael Armstrong from Hughes Electronic Corp. as chairman
and CEO, replacing Robert Allen. Like Allen, Armstrong faces significant
challenges.

Frank Governali, a securities analyst at Suisse Credit Bank, thinks
AT&T may be able to grow its revenue by 5 percent in 1998, to $54

billion, if it recaptures momentum in its core long distance business,
has an uptick in the wireless market through its personal communications
service operations, and rolls out fixed wireless services.

Still, for all the mishaps, there were success stories. Cisco, Lucent
Technologies Inc., Compaq and Microsoft all maintained strong leadership
positions in their respective markets. None had serious missteps in 1997
and, unless Microsoft's legal troubles increase significantly, none is
expected to face overwhelming threats in 1998.

But the events of 1997 show that's no cause for complacency. Informix,
for example, seemed to be gathering steam as a strong second-place
challenger to Oracle's database dominance. With-in six months, however,
Informix had nearly collapsed as news of one miscue after another
streamed out of its finance offices.

Loyal Customers

Some customers hung on. Larry White, president of Hyperzine
Communications Inc., a developer of Web sites and publisher of an online
magazine for photographers, said he is sticking with Informix, mainly

because it would be too difficult to migrate all his applications to
another database platform.

It remains to be seen whether that type of guarded loyalty will carry
Informix through 1998. But Informix was not the only database vendor to
limp out of 1997.

Oracle crashed spectacularly in December, reporting disappointing
earnings. Oracle blamed Asian economic upheavals and a sharp falloff in
sales to U.S. telecommunications carriers for the tumble, which caused
its market value to nosedive.

The third largest independent database vendor, Sybase, seems to have
escaped some of this turmoil. Its September earnings report was so
positive that Marshall Senk, a securities analyst at BancAmerica
Robertson Stephens, San Francisco, raised 1998 earnings-per-share
estimates to 51 cents from 44 cents, and also raised revenue projections
mildly upward. New products and a revived sales force should drive
sales, Senk said.

Larry Quinlan, director of practitioner support services for Deloitte

Touche, said the database market is still big enough to support Oracle
and other vendors, but Oracle seems to have taken its eye off the
market.

Microsoft's main threat, meantime, seems to be from the government,
not any competitor, he added.

A Wake-Up Call

Oracle chairman Larry Ellison "got caught paying too much attention
to network computers," Quinlan said. "This was a wake-up call to pay
more attention to database systems and let the computer companies worry
about network computers."

Deloitte uses Oracle for mainframe applications, but has standardized
on Microsoft's SQL Server database and Windows NT as its network
operating system.

That is not the way Gary Habermann, associate director of Widener
University's computer systems department, said he sees it. He's down on
NT because he said it is "not robust," does not easily support ATM

interface cards and is difficult to configure.

As for Microsoft's troubles with the Department of Justice, Habermann
is happy to see the government go after the Redmond, Wash., giant. "It
is about time," he said. "Bill Gates has been bullying people for too
many years. Someone had to tell him: 'You can't rule the world and
control everything from the operating system to the Web browser to
applications.' Somebody had to stand up and say, 'we did it to AT&T and
we can do it to you.' "

Widener University uses Net-scape's browsers and servers.

---- INDEX REFERENCES ----

COMPANY (TICKER): Ascend Communications Inc.; 3Com Corp.; AT&T Corp. (ASND COMS T)

NEWS SUBJECT: High-Yield Issuers; World Equity Index (HIY WEI)

INDUSTRY: Communications Technology; Telecommunications, All; Long Distance Telephone Providers; Telephone Systems (CMT TEL LDS
TLS)

Word Count: 724
1/5/98 COMMWK 8
END OF DOCUMENT



To: Sector Investor who wrote (29108)1/1/1998 12:06:00 PM
From: Gary Korn  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 61433
 
Nice reference in the last para. to ASND...worth a read:

1/5/98 CommunicationsWeek 48
1998 WL 2379678
InternetWeek
Copyright 1998 CMP Publications Inc.

Monday, January 5, 1998

696

Trends

Terabit Routing

Terabit Races To Carriers' Rescue
Saroja Girishankar

If ISPs and carriers are having panic attacks about offering Internet
access, there's good reason.

Insatiable demand for Internet access from businesses and consumers

has ISPs and carriers scrambling to keep up. Their biggest worry is how
to prevent bandwidth bottlenecks caused by mushrooming extranets and
intranets that constantly threaten to choke the global Internet.

Help is on the way this year, however, as an ambitious pack of
start-ups develop switches and routers that can handle hundreds of
millions-and in the long run, even terabits-of packets per second. These
heavy-duty networking devices are primarily being built by fast-moving
newcomers such as Avici Systems Inc., Argon Networks Inc. (formerly
called GigaPacket Networks Inc.) and NeoNet LLC. They're betting that
the market is ripe for their high-end offerings, and they're right.

"ISPs need high-capacity routers for their backbone to meet their
demands, and terabit routers will fill that hole," says Surya Panditi,
Avici's president and CEO.

ISPs could not agree more.

Uunet Technologies Inc., the ISP arm of WorldCom, faces the daunting
task of merging its network with that of MCI once WorldCom's acquisition
of MCI becomes final. The result will be the world's largest Internet

service provider with some 500,000 routers and 3,000 points of presence.
This would also mean having industrial-strength routers and switches
capable of handling terabit packets per second.

"We need next-generation products that can handle the increasing
demand for reliable and wire-speed Internet services and that can handle
OC-48 kind of speeds," says Michael O'Dell, vice president and chief
scientist at Uunet.

Though O'Dell says he could use the products in the next six months,
he'll have to wait-along with everyone else-until products are mature
and well tested later this year.

Most products will not be formally announced and displayed until
midyear, though some early betas could begin in the first and second
quarters, vendors say. General availability could begin late in the
year.

Mega-Routers

Key to these forthcoming devices-some of which are mega-IP routers,

and others a combination of ATM switches with built-in routing
functionality-is their ability to pump steady streams of small packets
at wire speeds. Use of advanced ASICs lets the switch-routers process 1
million packets per second of multimedia throughput. The ASICs are being
tested now by Argon Networks using its proprietary technology.

Further, many of these devices will be able to synthesize capabilities
of routers, ATM and frame switches, and handle advanced automated
mapping of IP addresses to those switches. In particular, they will
integrate multiple services-multimedia over IP, voice over ATM and
virtual private networks-while providing security.

Panditi and others expect these products to provide several levels of
quality-of-service and class-of-service guarantees to ensure some level
of consistency for customers. They will have to be scalable to handle
ever-expanding Internet and resulting services, whether they are as
simple as fax over the Internet or electronic commerce applications. WAN
links in the OC-12, OC-48 and even OC-192 range reaching 9.6-Gbps speeds
will be standard offerings.

Frank Dzubeck, president of Communications Network Architects Inc.,
sees these products meeting ISP demand for tera-packet switches and
from carriers that need ATM-based switches for integrating their voice
and data networks. Though he was optimistic about the developments, he
predicts that rollouts will be late in the year at best.

In the meantime, service providers and carriers will look to existing
vendors, such as Cisco and Ascend Communications Inc., for immediate
solutions. Both Ascend's GRF 1600 IP router and Cisco's Gigabit Switch
Router 12000 will process up to 10 million packets per second, a far cry
from the 200 million packets being promised by the start-ups. But when
the heat is on, availability wins out.


Word Count: 608
1/5/98 COMMWK 48
END OF DOCUMENT