Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2904)	1/1/1998 4:10:00 PM
From: Al Sinopoli	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78535

thread TOP 10 1998 Stock Picks to share your hot stocks for 1998 and to hear what others are thinking. Tech wise, I'm strong on TAN, PRD, IBM, and AOL. Good Luck to all in 1998

To: Michael Burry who wrote (2904)	1/1/1998 8:40:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 78535

Thread: Well if you all are going to look forward, I'll look backward. Here's a scorecard for what was posted last year - December 1996. My purpose is to see what I can learn, stimulate a little discussion and maybe learn a little. Here's what I did: took all Dec. '96 thread recommendations and quickly tried to find approx. price in Dec. '96 vs. yesterday's closing. Prices are rough --it has to be on a recuperative day after New Year's eve -g-. Sometimes there was an analysis or discussion but not a specific recommendation to buy (i.e. wasn't clear enough for me to understand that someone said "I am buying" or "I recommend" versus something like "I propose you look at this"). I generally excluded these proposed stocks except as noted. I took a one year holding period this time, because it's easier for me to get quotes (I'm especially lazy on this holiday day -g-); any time period must be arbitrary since there are no sell points; historically (but not necessarily this year)it takes a while for value stocks to be recognized in the market (yeah,I know one year could even be way too soon);and finally, there may be some learning for us with a one year period. This is a snapshot only, so I don't specifically intend that my numbers relate to any individual's real world performance. Still, it's nice to know who can do well under these arbitrary criteria. And the players are... B.D.: MKIE 7 - 6 (that is: was about $7 in 12/96 post, now about $6) Mike Burry: MDR 18 - 36.5/8 (proposed?) TTELF 22 - 14 NTR 15.3/8 - 26.1/2 OTEXF 8 -13.1/8 MCL 19-15 PRNI (takeover. cannot find prices) BHE 15-22.5/16 (proposed??) Ronald A. Christopher CTEK 5.7/8 - 1.17/32. Graham Dellaire USDL 11.5/8 -3.7/8 Chandler H. Everett JCP 47 - 60 BT 80 - 112 AN 79 - 85 Harlan Huber NTK 15.7/8 - 26.1/2 Chris Kay TGIS 8 - 12.1/2 (I really panned this pick --oops -g-) Paul Klemencic Tweedy Brown Global (I have no quotes for this popular fund.) CRE 13 - 12 CEE 13.1/2 - 18 DSWLF 9 - 15.3/4 (not sure if he actually recommended it) BHE 15 -22.5/16 Benjamin Lunsford OAKT 21 - 29.11/16 Scott Mc BZH 17 - 20 THTX (could not find Canadian(?) quotes on common. Scott actually was recommending the preferreds.) Paul Senior OLS 14 - 15 JCP 47 - 60 John Wasikowski NTK 15.3/8 - 26.1/2 White Shoes OTEXF 8 - 13.1/8 NSCP as a short sale (the only one on the thread in Dec)59 - 25 (that is sell short at 59 in Dec. 96 and stock is now 25) That's almost it. Here's what I think I see (I may be misinterpreting or overgeneralizing way too much): If there was a discussion about a particular stock where two or more people owned it, especially if one person bought based on the recommendation the first, there seemed to be a strong likelihood that that stock did well in the subsequent year. We have these instances: OTEXF, BHE, NTK, JCP. If there was an infrequent poster who only recommended one stock (and -g- especially if the poster started out with the word BUY this stock -- that stock and those stocks were losers (12 months later). We have for example: USDL, MKIE, CTEK. I also notice, that some of the people who have recommended the "winning stocks " now don't seem to have them in their profile or don't recommend them anymore. So my question to you is: are you patient enough or were you patient enough to hold the winners for one year. If not, and you sold at a loss or no profit-- you need IMHO to reevaluate your ability to sit on your hands! Methinks there's a bunch of you out there missing out on capitalizing on your own good stock picking abilities. (I think it's age related... but I'll save it for another post.) There are a couple of people who post infrequently but who seemed to have done well this year: Chandler Everett (a stock mkt professional)-- his picks were few but large caps which were in vogue this year - oil,bank. Paul Klemencic-- you don't want to go up against this guy. I know because I keep trying -g-. A retired guy who makes it his business to do absolutely thorough research on the stocks he buys. He uses a sector approach as many of you know -- the sector now being electronic contract manufactures. Often heavily margined (JMO) he trades as well as holds long term. I disagree with his methods, but it's impossible to argue with his success (and easy to argue with my mine -g-) In these '96 December postings Paul recommended scooping up some country funds that were selling at discount to NAV. That proved a winning approach. But Paul's record is not IMO the best of the Dec. '96 picks. In my next post, I'll identify the best stock picker and his picks. No losing positions and a few triples. Wow!