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Technology Stocks : Ericsson overlook? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kech who wrote (1175)	1/3/1998 1:57:00 AM
From: DWB	Respond to of 5390

Tom - maybe I should have said viable competitors... You missed the point... Microsoft's delay didn't keep anyone from getting into the market... it in fact created an opportunity for everyone else... but nobody was ready to capitalize on it. Windows already had a huge subscriber base at the time, and IBM was stumbling so badly with OS/2 that public perception was very tentative towards their product (remember the commercials with the nuns???? and all the Warp analogies??? Puhleeeaze.....). I think by that point, the PC vs. Mac battle had already become a rout, it just might have not been evident to all those involved (hindsight is almost always 20/20), and there was nothing new in the Mac world to generate any additional sales momentum (have they released any significant updates in the 90's?). From what I can tell, Sun is still moving closer to the desktop, and Java might actually get them there in another couple years if they don't screw it up too badly. Regardless, they weren't a significant OS back then, with a sizable installed base to take advantage of the void. Now look at 3G systems. We know that for ETSI there is at least one other group proposing an alternative solution.... I'm assuming that QCOM is either involved in that one, or is developing a seperate solution. Then there are all the other companies that are building testbeds for DOCOMO. I'd say that nobody has an upper hand at this point, everyone has a large existing subscriber base, all are developing their systems with similar delivery timeframes, and nobody dominates the market to the detriment of the others. That's quite a different set of circumstances in which a 2 year lack of product would unfold, wouldn't you say? Bottom line... the world will not wait for 3G if Ericsson stalls with a vaporware unit... in that case Ericsson will get left behind, quickly. DWB