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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Technamentals who wrote (57918)	9/4/2016 8:45:13 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78817

Re: RAIL I think you have got a lot of it right. I like their new facility and they now just hired a new facility manager w/ experience to allow build to order rail car assembly using some of the latest robotic configuration/techniques. There is a learning curve but once the software is fine tuned and labor is up to speed on the learning curve, this facility can build many different rail car configurations w/ little to no special set up. The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. (GBX) is another one you might want to look at and compare their operations to RAIL. This one came up on my GN screen as did Trinity Industries Inc. (TRN). My TRN is +40% from my earlier buy this year at $17.50/share. I think RAIL may be the best value play now but they are still a very small cap when compared to TRN and/or GBX. I like GBX debt profile better than both RAIL and/or TRN. At this time in the interest rate cycle (next moves higher rather than lower), I think one needs to erro on companies w/ little to no debt. GBX's debt profile does meet Buffets rule, where 4x Net annual revenues are<= Long Term debt. FWIW, I am still looking to start a position in Rail and have a GTC order at/below $13.50/share. GBX looks interesting at's it SMA(200) price of $29/share. I might nibble if it sells at/below $25.00/share. EKS

To: Technamentals who wrote (57918)	9/6/2016 12:05:54 PM
From: Graham Osborn	1 Recommendation Recommended By E_K_S Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

Welcome Technamentals! First off, thank you for posting your actual valuation, which is infinitely more useful than "I bought X today because the earnings report missed consensus and the P/ B was low." On methodology, you will find few here who will very much weight a DCF for a cyclical - particularly with a CAGR assumption. That is why your PT from this method comes out high. On the stock: I did look at RAIL when running a comps for GBX. It does indeed appear cheap. I picked GBX over RAIL because it had a multi year TR of revenue and tangible book growth, whereas RAIL (which was comparably cheap on most spot/ TTM metrics) has gone nowhere over the past decade. Will GBX continue growing? Probably not, although I think the probability is nonzero. Second, RAIL is still in a bit of a death slide whereas GBX at least appears to show consolidation. Hope that helps, Graham

To: Technamentals who wrote (57918)	9/13/2016 6:15:10 PM
From: E_K_S	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78817

FreightCar America Inc. (RAIL) Started a small position in RAIL w/ a Buy at $13.53/share. This was a bit below of my acceptable entry point of $13.67/share and will double up the position if this trades at/below $12.50/share. My fair value target (according the GN model) is $16.79/share or about 24% undervalued at the current market price. My main concern w/ new Buy entries is to minimize any downside so overall Risk/Reward is positive even if I must hold longer. Over a five year time period this has traded as high as $35.00/share and an all time low $13.66/share. So it looks like today's buy point was another all time low closing price. EKS