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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: username who wrote (6425)	1/1/1998 5:31:00 PM
From: Thean	Read Replies (9) \| Respond to of 95453

Pete, does deMark know and feel the pulse of the drillers? It is important to understand when TA is useful and when not when applying it to the drillers. My 1998 resolution - trade 80% in the drillers, 20% special situation play, first target is to gain at least 50%. Looking back in 1997, all my nice gain in the drillers were fed to the tech speculation. I had a gain close to 200% this year alone in my IRA account primarily on good driller trades but now I'm down to 40% gain due to bad losses in techs. Real hard to shallow. The key lesson is that tech stocks can gap down 30% without warning but the drillers give you plenty of warning for such a move. It really pays to stick to the stock/sector one knows. Since quite a few on this board have expressed much anxiety going into Friday, it may be worth thinking about the following scenarios. 1) Another strong day on Friday (optimistic) - if the trading pattern is similar to Wednesday, a number of drillers, especially the bigger names like FLC, RIG, NE will hit the upper BB (natural resistence) intraday. Consolidation will ensue. If the overall volume is high and we close higher like yesterday, the game is not over yet, IMO. However, if one sells tomorrow into strength and the tide does not turn but rather continues to go up on Monday, it is prudent to get back in for the ride. That means the momentum is sustainable and we may have sideway action with slight uptrend next week. This can continue till the earning season which is only 2 weeks away. Will we hit the old high, very very unlikely. It will take momumental momentum to keep the upper BB on a steep uptrend in 2 weeks. 2) Hit ceiling on friday (pessimistic) - this means we are headed back down, like the dead cat bounce scenario we had in early Dec. However, it is unlikely we will gap down strongly or trend down from the open unless we have crude losing $1 and some other crisis. With the recent momentum, there are bound to be people trying to buy in fearing of missing the train. Interesting, the long stochastics is also "dangerously" similar to the one in early Dec just before things slumped again. I believe the short stochastics indicates overbought by now. 50 days moving average will also present another resistence and we are headed that way Friday. I suspect it will be challenged at least for some (FLC and SLB already did that on Wednesday but failed to close above it). If one sells into strengh tomorrow and the drillers did not go down further than 10-15%, prepare to be disciplined enough to get back in.