Here are the final results of my NSCP vs. MSFT pool:
Which is more valuable, 100 shares of NSCP or 30 shares of MSFT?
30 MSFT
Final closing bid prices (as reported on Yahoo):
MSFT -- $129 3/16
NSCP -- $ 24 1/4
30 MSFT = $3,875.63
100 NSCP = 2,425.00
Individual rankings (in ascending order of accuracy):
Carlos Blanco
Prediction re which will be more valuable: Neither
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 0
NSCP 0
Est. Valuations
MSFT $0
$3,875.63 too low
NSCP $0
$2,425.00 too low
Total variance $6,300.63
I think that qualifies Carlos for dead last.
Justin Banks:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: NSCP
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 100
NSCP 70
(We'll assume no DOJ for now. If DOJ does something, we'll let you go with your
other prediction if you want -- But don't hold your breath.)
Est. Valuations
MSFT $3,000.00
$ 875.63 too low
NSCP $7,000.00
$4,575.00 too high
Total variance $5,450.63
Justin, your pessimism on DOJ was misplaced. They DID do
something. Unfortunately, it did not have the effect on the
stock prices you predicted. Better luck next time.
Ron Dior:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: NSCP
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 103
NSCP 60
Est. Valuations
MSFT $3,090
$ 785.63 too low
NSCP $6,000.00
$3,575.00 too high
Total variance $4,360.63
Had the prediction of MSFT reaching 108 come true, you probably would have won the MSFT competition,
but you were way off on NSCP. Sorry.
Bill Harmond:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: NSCP
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 116
NSCP 51
Est. Valuations
MSFT $3,480.00
$ 395.63 too low
NSCP $5,100.00
$2,675.00 too high
Total variance $3,070.63
Jim McDonald:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: NSCP
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 140
NSCP 48
Est. Valuations
MSFT $4,200
$ 325.00 too high
NSCP $4,800
$2,375 too high
Total variance $2,700
Jim, your MSFT valuation was pretty close, but NSCP killed you.
Li'l' ol' Moi:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: NSCP
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 125-3/4
NSCP 48-7/8
Est. Valuations
MSFT $3,772.50
$ 103.13 too low
NSCP $4,887.50
$2,462.50 too high
Total variance $2,565.63
Like Jim, I was pretty close on MSFT, but I was way too optimistic on NSCP, and it killed me.
Lawrence Kam:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: MSFT
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 165
NSCP 37
Est. Valuations
MSFT $4,950
$1,074.37 too high
NSCP $3,700
$1,275.00 too high
Total variance $2,349.37
Lawrence was slightly higher on both of these companies that turned out to be warranted.
Still, being an optimist was good enough to get him third place.
Harvey Allen
Prediction re which will be more valuable: MSFT
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT 80
NSCP 20
Est. Valuations
MSFT $2,400.00
$1,475.63 too low
NSCP $2,000.00
$ 425.00 too low
Total variance $1,900.63
Harvey, you came closer than most on NSCP. Your pessimism was good enough to get you into second place.
But let's face it (and no offense intended), you hosed it on MSFT. Next time, don't be so donw in Cairman Bill.;)
And the winner is:
Anonymous submitter:
Prediction re which will be more valuable: MSFT
Bid prices on 31 December 1997
MSFT $141 3/8
NSCP $21 7/16
Est. Valuations
MSFT $4,241.25
$ 365.62 too high
NSCP $2,143.75
$ 281.25 too low
Total variance $ 646.87
The winner gets a genuine United States Peace silver dollar in close to uncirculated condition. (Don't look a gift horse in the mouth!)
The second and third place winners get Walking Liberty half dollars in, um, shall we say, "average-circulated" condition. (But, hey, it's better than a wooden nickel!)
Send a mailing address to me at my e-mail address to claim your prizes. |
