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To: Robert Graham who wrote (4536)1/1/1998 5:46:00 PM
From: Claud B  Respond to of 42787
 
Bob,

A couple of points:

1. When Charles Dow developed the "Averages," Railroads dominated
the Transportation Averages. In my opinion, that correlation you
refer to does not apply to this generation. Airlines and Truckers
now primarily compose this average. Airlines move in sync with
crude oil prices. Don't think there was much crude oil used to
drive railroads. So I think using his old theories just doesn't work
today.

2. Regarding Bond yields....I'll give you my own prediction...
not that you or anyone else asked. I expect long term treasuries
to trade in the 5 to 5 1/4% range in the first half of '98.
And it's not just because of the Asian contagion. There's another
ugly word out there called "deflation." Let's watch and listen.

Your thoughts are always appreciated.

Claud



To: Robert Graham who wrote (4536)1/2/1998 11:43:00 AM
From: GROUND ZERO™  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 42787
 
Hi Robert,

Brilliant post!!!

Thank you for your thoughts. I agree that the transports and utilities are key to this market at this time. I don't believe I'm conversant in the Dow theory.

GZ