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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hpeace who wrote (26693)	1/1/1998 9:44:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Steve, I have been saying that Dell would make the Feb number, but the 1st Q, that is APR could be very difficult. My prediction is that the stock will start to discount becasue at least one if not more of the reasons below. Does this mean that You agree with me ? :) You keep looking at AP from a supply standpoint. I am looking at it from a demand point. The immediate impact is positive from everything you say. I now (I did not before, but I learned something) agree with it too. Going foward though, Now 95% of your cost's are in a country or region that experienced 10% inflation last month, with 9% expected this month. Is that going to be good longer term. If AP does not right itself soon, then could this initial asset become a liabality ? On Intc and sub zero, Dell does not want to sell PC's below $1,500 but there is great demand developing for PC's below that price. The reason I think INTC is cutting prices is because CPQ is seeing such great demand for their low end. This is a combination of 2 and 3 You obviously know more about this industry than I do. Why do MIS (that means the computer people at a company to me, think generalisticaly) depts have so much money to spend ? On software, One would expect there to be some sort of corolation between software and hardware sales. I am sure that you can set me straight on this one. Cpq going after DELL, you make it sound like this is starting to happen. Well are we not trying to look foward here ? Perhaps this is a concern going foward. Servers as a % of sales, as servers become a larger, their % growth rate from the low levels they were at 12 months ago, make this simply a numbers game. Does not mean that it will happen, only that it should from a numbers stastics standpoint. Before the big one, a new one. NOTEBOOKS, I have heard many rumors that Dell is having trouble in the notebook arena. Please tell me that you agree that there is a large inventory of unsold notebooks in the computer industry. I have read many report citing this as a potential problem. Earnings. starting with Q1 1997: Y/Y Q/Q .12 .29 141% .39 34% .51 30% .54 157% 5% .59 103% 9% .69A 77% 17% .75E 47% 8% .77 43% 2% .80 36% 1% .89 29% 12% .99 32% 11% That is what is called slowing earnings momentum. With a stock at record valuation, Does this matter ? I guess the market will have to answer this one. My point is that there is deceleration, and it is very visable. Will the expected strenth surface 5 quarters from now ? I would say that with expectation of .5 to 1% reduction in world economies, 5 quarters is a stretch for buying. You are right on two thing, I am not 33. I am 32. and Yes I have traded my share of bank stocks. Why would you buy a bank that is going to rollover its bad loans into bigger bad loans to companies in countries with downgraded debt ratings, Inflation that no one know how bad it will get. And their competitors are declairing banckruptcy. But that is a different story. jim