To: hpeace who wrote (26725 ) 1/2/1998 10:07:00 AM From: Jim Patterson Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 176387
re: Our points about your posts is they are not facts and they are not technically correct. In these optomistic times, very few companies are trading on historical preformance. EPS reports confirm or disenchant investors. Technical facts are history. Not important to where the stock is going to go next month. The reason why my statements are foward looking is because that is what investors are doing now. It is hard to have facts on how people will react to events that really have not happened yet. We can only speculate on that. That is what I am doing. I am trying to figure out if I am wrong on what I think will happen, on how investors will react to events that have not surfaced in full force yet. You keep bringing up the fact that you know more than I do about the nuts and bolts of the PC business. You are right on that one for the 5 time. Now, 1) This currency devaluation in the AP is not like the ones of the past. It is an order of magnitude larger. That should make it easy for all DELL, CPQ, HP to beat the quarter. You have convinced me of that. 2) Wait, I have a question. If AP reduces growth in the US by .5 to 1%, Yes I have read several forcasts that indicate this. And, Reduces Europe by .3 to .5 % and it reduces Japan's growth by 1%-2% (29% japan GDP is export to their asain neighbors) could this have an impact on PC sales ? 3) Is China going to devalue again, Will the HK peg hold ? 4) Will the drop in Semi cap spending impact PC sales ? 5) Will the massive inflation now surfacing in AP countries impact anything. 6) Will companies effected by the AP slowdown continue with their very agressive capital expenditures for years to come. These are events that we will not know the answers to for a while, investors voice their opinions with their dollars. The market is the final judge and jury. I hope every one is clear on my opinion. I am clear on yours. Neither of us can win the discussion. I only hope that all parties involved have some good food for thought. Happy New Year Jim