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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (16091)	1/2/1998 1:20:00 AM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 50167

Napm number today is eagerly awaited- I would like to see some answer to questions raised by Leading indicators numbers and Chicago's and Phily PMI's- 1- Leading indicators sister number coincident Indicator is showing last quarter a GDP growth in excess of 4% - It is genrally a good proxy of GDP growth. This indicates a possibility of higher total NAPM. 2- Phily index has shown traditional seasonal slow down -1.3 against average of 22 in the third quarter.This lead me to beoieve that we may see NAPM lower from 54% anticipated by the market. 3- My read is that many funf managers are looking at today's number with great interest to look at state of economy in wake of ASEAN drama- three components should be looked at - a-Total Napm b- purchasers prices paid c- Deliveries My expectations are that NAPM number will be in between 53.5-55% however purchasers prices may show a slow down although Phily does not show it but I am looking at cpi indices JOC and CRB they have been much lower but I have yet to see purchasers prices being affected this should normaly translate in these numbers. On Deliveries the last 94 rises by Fed were trigerred when this number crossed 57%- I think we will see a mix around 56%- today's numbers will create some very strong voltality- some confusion may be created because of deliveries and purchase prices contradiction but a SPA test of 968-972 area will be good area to long, I think next few days a test of new highs is on cards coincident indicators which give me some confident reading beyond couple of months are indicative of very strong GDP growth and this cannot be neglectes- short termers don't look beyond few quarters and I find some of these numbers reassuring. I will suggest long positions on indexes only after if lows are tested ,one should establish on the way up if 968 or 972 is tested you enter if 970 is taken out on the way up for 968 or 974.6 for 972 respectively. A break of 968 may not bode well and one needs to watch the situation below that level, it may be a short move down to ring out stops but first hour activity will be intersting to watch. Numbers may bring relief rally if market realises that 'deflation' is definitely out of equation this may take SPA to 984 and higher to test old highs. I remain bullish and expect market to test the highs as I have written several times before we may soon see culmination of 'double top' and 'triple bottom debate'- it is an established fact that if what we have been saying all along is right that double top with a trading range from Aug can be herald of a explosive mix. My levels to watch are 992 and 968- if we have a close above 980 today we are in for assault on 992 but a close below 968 needs defensive strategy. ASEAN markets on Monday will not like below 968 configuration.