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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: space cadet who wrote (4269)	1/2/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

space cadet, you just be careful about shorting overvalued stocks, last month YHOO was suggested as a good short at 50, I warned against it, in the last rally it went above 71. A shorter that did not cover would have been wiped out, since you usually would put down $2500 to short 100 shares, you would have been left with $500 in one month of shorting an already ridiculously valued, because it assumed ludicrous valuation. Zeev

To: space cadet who wrote (4269)	1/2/1998 8:58:00 AM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 10921

Re: Semi-equip overvaluations and Wall street usually overshoots on the upside but I don't remember seeing such a crazy overshoot before. SC, Although practically all of these stocks qualified as overbought and extended, IMO there is no comparison to where many stocks still trade, even after much "panic" over SEA and deflation has set in. Yahoo currently trades at 800X next years est. eps. Amazon also trades at ludicrous levels. IMHO, if you want to target overvalued stocks, target the ones with no forseeable earnings streams. He!!, many of these cos. don't even know how they'll make $$ on the net. Yet the Street not only assumes they will, but that there will be no other place to buy books. At least the equipment cos. had a real story to justify most of thgeir prices. IMHO, we will be seeing those prices again not too long from now once people realize end consumption for IC's in SEA is only ~22% and Korea's impact on AMAT, assuming they slash capex by half, would amount to only a ~4.5% loss in revs. since Korea makes up ~9% of AMAT's orders. DISCLAIMER: I've been wrong more often than right during these past two months :-) Regards, Brian