To: Alfonso Agostino who wrote (101 ) 1/2/1998 7:25:00 AM From: George J. Tromp Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2251
Hi Alfie: The projection concerning Winspear., of $6.35 is a target price when the market determines a viable discovery., momentum of the news., should carry it there the time frame it stays will be dictated by the fundamentals concerning tonnage., grade., etc. and the outlook for more news. I dont think lack of success by Winspear would directly affect the others except KLA., . MPV., Aber., Southerna., stand on their own. WSP lack of success would more directly affect KLA at least short term. Kla with Southerna should be providing some news of their own. The exploration dollars for the NWT are significan compared to other areas in Canada. Failure by one Junior would only temporarily damper enthusiams. The more aggressive an investor., the more he wants to be in leveraged stocks. Winspear., Kla provide quick leverage., but remember to take some profits along the way., so youre back to play in the future. My personal view is this: Aber., Southerna are long term investments. with the added factor of Blue Sky potential. If the historical patterns evolve this year as in past there should be good movement. Kla and Winspear are trading vehicles until a significant discovery is made. MPV: In reference to Skelly question., is probably as close to realizing economics as any player in the NWT. The price target on MPV is based on succesful mini-bulk sample results., indicating stone quality and size. These targets can be altered as well depending on the success elsewhere on the property. Keep this in mind Most multi-source diamond plays have a total market cap in the 2.0 Bil range. Another words.,, you have a 2.0Billion dollar pumpkin pie. As a company successively improves in its funadmentals., they will be taking a bigger slice out the pie. I plan on posting market caps and how the market determines prices within the Cap. It would appear KLA is currently trading at about a 50% discount to Winspear., that being due to Winspear having answered some early questions concerning stone quality., and a clear trend towards large stones in the boulder samplings. Here is an easy rule of thumb and Des on the Aber thread was so kind to point it out. FOR A QUICK CHECK ON VALUATIONS USE THESE FIGURES XYZ Company valuation early on., based on sampling etc. is around 5% of total market cap. XYZ Company valuation., say if surficial diamonds are found and other positives could be as high as 10% XYZ Compay valuation., generally at Diamond discovery and Kimberlite interestion., could move to 15% of market cap. XYZ Company valuation., generally mini-bulk sampling 10%-20% based on what is known early concerning stone quality., potential tonnage. XYZ Company valuation., Bulk Sampling success would probably be 30% of Market Cap. XYZ Company: Production Decision., moves from good speculation to investment grade. Eventually should move to 40% of Market Cap XYZ Company enters production., value based on projected earnings determined by several factors.