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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: John Pitera who wrote (18403)9/27/2016 10:39:56 AM
From: John Pitera  Respond to of 33421
 

Iran pulls the rug out from under any chances of an oil deal in Algiers, the Mexican peso calls the debate for Clinton and Deutsche Bank is having another day to forget.

Oil falls

A barrel of West Texas Intermediate was trading more than 1.3 percent lower at $45.32 by5:53 a.m. ET after Iran said it's unwilling to freeze production at current levels. The nation's oil minister also said the country doesn't intend to strike an agreement with other crude producers in Algiers this week. The increased power the Iranians have over the price of crude shows how much the tables have turned on Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest producer.

Debate debate

A CNN poll showed that 62 percent of voters who watched last night's presidential candidate's debate felt that Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton, won. In markets, the Mexican peso seems to agree, with the currency rallying as much as 2 percent after the head-to-head concluded. Supporters of Republican nominee Donald Trump said that their candidate would now hit battleground states hard.

Deutsche Bank falling again

Deutsche Bank AG shares are falling again this morning, down 3.4 percent to 10.21 euros at6:05 a.m. ET. The bank has been under pressure due to a $14 billion request from the U.S. Department of Justice to settle claims over sales of mortgage-backed securities, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel's lack of enthusiasm for bailing out the bank, should it become necessary. For Merkel, it seems there may be a lengthening list of German companies to worry about as the DOJ is currently assessing how big of a fine it can extract from Volkswagen AG over emissions-cheating without putting the carmaker out of business.

Markets turn lower

Overnight, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7 percent for its first session of gains in three days, with Japan's Topix index adding 1 percent by the close. In Europe, where stocks opened higher, the Stoxx 600 Index was down 0.5 percent by 6:15 a.m. ET as banks and carmakers came under pressure. S&P 500 futures were 0.2 percent higher, paring a gain of as much as 0.7 percent following the debate.

Bond rally

Global bonds have been the big winner as renewed concerns over Europe's banks spur demand for safe assets. Germany's 10-year yield fell to the lowest since July and Finland's dropped below zero for the first time. Spain's 10-year yield dropped to a record low. The outlook may be different for Treasuries, as Blackrock Inc., the world's biggest money manager, warned of the risks of holding the instruments as the Federal Reserve moves towards raising rates.




To: John Pitera who wrote (18403)9/29/2016 11:57:22 PM
From: The Ox  Respond to of 33421
 
Hi JP,
Hope all is well with you and the thread's readers.

There's a ton of speculation surrounding DB but a lot of what I've read does not appear to have anything other than a lack of confidence as the basis of the negativity. One of the better Brexit trades since June 27th has been to short DB and I think it's getting long in the tooth. As with any falling knife, buyer beware but I think this is more a case of eroding investor sentiment than anything else....but I definitely reserve the right to be wrong. The volume is at a point where we could see an even larger % move (in either direction) very soon.

Look at the second chart at the bottom of this page and we can see that the Brexit drop was timely, as the stock was close to breaking the down trend that has been in place for a few years. Confidence is a major part of any bank's valuation and the fact DB has been in a steady decline compounds the obvious, IMO. Also, I haven't seen anyone accurately back up the claim of 40:1 leverage but maybe I just missed it, as I haven't had much time to follow things closely the past couple of months.

I think it's time to watch for a potential reversal at these levels. This is not to say jump in front of the speeding train but it appears to me this has been overplayed and just a case of mo-mo to the downside.

We'll see.

A while back you asked about the Semi industry and where they are at in their cycle. I'd say that it's early in the actual production cycle rebound but that a significant number of the stocks have anticipated a lot of the rebound. After a cursory look, it appears that much of the short term positives have already been priced in and, with that in mind, it's important to be very selective going forward. I think a rising tide will continue to lift most of the semi boats but a number of the charts look like they could use a corrective phase based on how early in the cycle we appear to be.

Here are a few of the charts displayed in a couple of different groups (mostly focused on equipment stocks):

Message 30612589
Message 30612720
Message 30612748