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Technology Stocks : SSA (SSAX) BPCS/Client Server -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: MAURICE J. SADOWSKY who wrote (389)1/2/1998 11:50:00 AM
From: MAURICE J. SADOWSKY  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 915
 
Well since I can't get through to Inv. Relations--seems they are taking vacation time today--the way I see it on a "macro" basis is as follows:
1. 49.8% of the stock is held by Covey, directors, and two large institional companies.
2. It would appear that about 20-21% of the stock owned by the public, is borrowed for short interest--assuming that none comes from the sector listed in item 1 (above).
3. The Asian business represents about 20% of revenue--but the stock is down from roughly $14 to about $9 today or 35% from the date of the Oarcle announcement and earnings by SSAX.
4. Think Covey is correct in saying that the Asian business will not be substantially impacted--so it would appear to be oversold at $9.
5. Now we need some good news to scare the pants off of the shorts. Then we should have a one or two day oportunity to sell and a subsequent oportunity to buy back.
6. It will take a daily volume of over 1.5 to maybe 2.0 million shares to accomplish this short term strategy. Longer term the company has to return to its pre "ERP" profit margin of 10-12%.
Then the stock can ligitimately claim a price to sales ratio of 4.0 and a price above $20.

That's it--nothing is going to happen today so I'm going to a movie with "she who must be obeyed".