To: Marcman who wrote (4373 ) 1/2/1998 9:50:00 PM From: Kerm Yerman Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24936
Marcman Tipster / Ohio Resources Last Trade $0.90 Don't agree on the tip. This is a company I've been aware of for some time, but have not followed very closely. However, permit me pass on some observations. Being debt free is good, if the reasoning is sound. In their case, they have seen limited drilling activity in 1997, thus very little spending/reinvestment. 1997 has not been a good year on a quarter to quarter basis. The company doesn't report production numbers, That doesn't sit good with me. However, they do report revenue and quarterly cash flow. Here are the findings for the six previous quarters. 4thQtr 1stQtr 2ndQtr 3rdQtr 4thQtr 1stQtr 073196 103196 013197 043097 073197 103197 Revenue $ 622,223 $ 553,185 $1,055,518 $ 522,823 $ 438,657 $ 563,944 Cash flow $ 227,223 $ 147,450 $ 227,950 $ 132,021 $ 115,032 $ 172,586 CFPS $ 0.02 $ 0.01 $ n/r $ n/r $ n/r $ 0.02 Note that revenue and cash flow increase for the second quarter of 97 was a result of increased oil and gas prices. The company has been at a standstill for 1-1/2 years while the industry as a whole was growing handsomely. Not a good record for the company. The company had a total 1997 cash flow of $0.09/share. Right now, the company is trading at 9X trailing 12 months cash flow. That's way to high a multiple for shares in a company with this kind of growth. Factoring share dilution, the company would have to generate approximately $5.25 million in revenue to justify the current share price at 6X 1998 cash flow. That's 2X the revenue generated in 1979. And, with one quarter already under their belt, that objective looks quite lofty. On top of that, commodity prices on a year to year basis will probaly average lower - especially for the current quarter. And, based upon their record, 6X is to high a multiple to use. A reasonable multiple is 4X 1998 cash flow for current share price and that amounts to a share value of $0.60. And, keep in mind, this is based upon a lofty forecast, which is unlikely to occur. How are they going to double revenue in 1998?????? Which brings me to the subject of the Republic of Palau. This has already been a one year project period and I don't think there has been any real progress to date. the company & its partners have yet to find a company to farm out the acreage to. They required a six month extension from August 11th to drill two wells they have committed to. There has been no word since August regarding their situation with their commitment to drilling. In my opinion, this is not a company to jump into at this time. In regards to share valuaton, if anything - shares are greatly overvalued. Keep in mind, just one man's opinion.