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To: gnuman who wrote (43585)1/2/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: Barry A. Watzman  Respond to of 186894
 
Gene,

The real definition of PII is a Pentium Pro core logic with MMX and high-speed execution of 16-bit code added (both missing in the original Pentium Pro). The physical pacakaging and electrical interface (slot 1, socket 7, etc.) do not, in my mind, define what constitutes a PII.



To: gnuman who wrote (43585)1/2/1998 2:10:00 PM
From: John Hansen  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
For the time being I suspect that PII will imply slot 1 for the basic-PC (segment 0 or <$1k PC) up through the workstation. There are just too many good benefits to having a homogenous processor solution from Intel's perspective. Right now slot 1 incurs around a $20 cost penalty to the PC manufacturer over socket 7 according to Intel. That is the bad news. The good news it is only metal and the costs can be reduced significantly, especially considering the volumes that PII will command in 1998. It will always cost more for slot 1 as compared with socket 7.

As for the real low end such as set-top boxes I can't see a slot 1 implemenation either. The real reason for slot 1 in the first place is performance and economics. Slot 1 places the second level cache on the PII backside bus. Ideally, you'd place the second level cache on chip, however CPU transistor budgets currently don't support this.

When Mike Amyar says Intel will repackage PII it probably will. I find Mike sometimes shoots his mouth off with really thinking. This is great for an investor because it gives you a view into the company. My spin on Mike's statement is that Intel will take PII core technology and do a spin on it. When the marketing people get through with it will probably be called something like Pentium-CE for consumer electronics. Remember forerunner for PII was the Pentium-Pro. Repackage a P-Pro and add MMX and you have PII.

On the margin issue it has been my experience that Intel doesn't worry over margin as much as it worries over total margin dollars (This was a big issue a few years ago when Intel went into the board business and Wall Street was hammering Intel because even though their profits went up Intel's overall margin went down). If you sell processors for set-top boxes, presumably at lower margin, then your overall margins go down but earnings per share should go up. Which is the same point you made.

As for fundametal changes on Intel's strategy I agree they are being made. Intel has been eying consumer electronics for quite some time and can evidenced by recent activity. Intel has recently announced a digital camera component set. Intel is activily persuing 1394 (both the current 200 megabit version and 1 gigabit version) and recently has targeted set-top boxes. This is all great news but it won't impact earnings in '98.

With respect to your question, "what happens this year", still remains unanswered.