To: Brent D. Beal who wrote (41975 ) 1/2/1998 2:02:00 PM From: Scott Norteman Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 58324
Brent, My .02! IMHO, it is a time like this that represents the greatest opportunity for a trader in any stock. While we, for the most part like the company and its products and the overall outlook, the price action does not seem to confirm our thoughts. It is easy to forget that short-term prices are largely random and mostly influenced by unforseeable events (the Asian Crisis, analyst up/downgrades, bonehead articles from the traditional, less-than-informed media, blah, blah, blah!!). Eventually, however, the smart (read BIG) money comes to its senses and moves to where it will do the most good. Sometimes this happens suddenly, sometimes in steady accumulation, but it DOES move, causing our intermediate and long-term price expectations to be fulfilled. Now, do I know that this is what is happening with IOM right now? Well, I don't think anyone can know for sure, but all of the technical indicators that I follow seem to indicate a very oversold condition with almost NO real distribution taking place. In addition if you look at the techs overall, I think a good portion of IOM's retreat can be attributed to the tech decline in December. Why, you ask, hasn't IOM recovered any with the rally of the past few days? Good question. Lack of interest? Traders and investors still on vacation? The Earth's moon is now lined up with URanus? Who knows. What I do, however, feel very strongly about is that the recent lack of movement is NOT due to a fundamental change in the company! If any of the garbage being spewed forth by our resident shorts, bears, boneheads, etc. had any merit we would all be seeing some significant volume. We are not. Another thing I thought I would share. If you have one of the TA packages, pull up the Chaikin's volatility indicator and compare it to IOM. Isn't it uncanny how when we reach the current LOW level of volatility, a large price move seems to be in store for the the following week? This indicator is not infallible, but it does serve to confirm my current feelings about IOM. My apologies if this sounded like a lecture. I really don't want to sound like a KNOW-IT-ALL. But, this is one of the few forums where I thought I might hear some intelligent responses. Good luck to all! Currently long a truck-load of FEB 12 1/2 calls. Scott/FL