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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shane M who wrote (58151)	10/9/2016 12:09:09 AM
From: Jurgis Bekepuris	2 Recommendations Recommended By gcrispin Spekulatius Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78715

Shane, Yes, I remember that you participated in the G&K threads. I only partially agree with the specific post you are pointing at. I don't think that Google's Gorilla'ness is gonna last shorter than Microsoft's. So I somewhat disagree that world is changing faster and new Gorillas last shorter. I think part of that impression comes from the fact that people anoint non-Gs as Gs and then are surprised when they are supplanted rather fast. Regarding valuation, yeah, Gs can be overvalued. But valuing them at Value Investing level and using low growth conservative valuation methods doesn't make sense either. I took a look at some of my own posts on G&Ks and I think that was one of my big mistakes. Another mistake - the one that pretty much everyone committed - is not figuring the true Gs and not holding them forever. Looking back it was possible to see that Google captured not one but two G spots: online advertising ecosystem and mobile OS/SW ecosystem and that doesn't even cover their search Super King spot (since search does not have open proprietary architecture and isn't an area that creates Gs). I missed it on valuation concerns. Big stupid miss. I also missed ARMH(Y). This was known to be Gorilla, it was even trading at cheap Value Investing valuation, I even bought it... and then sold it instead of holding for 10x-100x runup and the G game that it went through. Both of these required holding and even perhaps buying at high valuations. It might be interesting to ask whether we will have any new Gs anytime soon. FB could get there if they expand openness of their architecture and continue to capture more ecosystem into it. AMZN AWS or some other similar system could possibly end up being open proprietary architecture. Right now it is unclear to me if AMZN or Microsoft Azure may end up a cloud G. I don't think either is a cloud G yet. I don't think we have any other serious candidates right now. Note: AAPL is a complicated case, which I cannot cover well in one paragraph. I think Jobs did a great job (haha) in capturing users through mostly closed proprietary architecture, which is not G by definition but has come close to being G since it's not completely closed.