To: Market Tracker who wrote (6147 ) 1/4/1998 1:00:00 AM From: Richard Babusek Respond to of 10368
Gary, ref: warrants cause of price tanking. I don't buy the reasoning that the price would have been driven down by short sellers whenever they would have been called. I particularly worry about short call periods, although all that I have looked at have been pretty short. If I wanted to short and the call period was very short, I would feel safe, but if the call period was 6-9 months, my comfort level would go way down, who is going to panic with such a long time horizon? If good news and earnings continue, the warrants should be way in the money before expiration, not on the edge. I have seen a few warrant calls lately, and can't find a pattern that would allow me to reliably predict what's going to happen for any warrant call. I'm convinced warrants are a great tool for raising capital with nominal underwriting costs. I hold a few other warrants, and wouldn't bet on the same scenario playing out on them all. I am interested in discovering any principles that would help me in my s/w holding ratio, and how to analyze the probabilities of a tank like we saw for bingo. I have a distinct feeling I need to get a handle on market cap (based on float). For example if BNGO float was 2M @ $9/s=$18M (a the time of assessment before the call) then the call requires 3.3*$5=$16.5M increase in market cap or ~92% in 20+ trading days. At the low point of ~$5.5 assuming a float of 4.5M ~$24M cap or about $6M greater than when the assessment was made (2M @$9), so BNGO holders could only come up with an extra $6M in that short time, and the rest came from price erosion, no short sellers needed. I'm not forwarding this as theory, but to elicit comment and inquiry, and to learn some more from this great thread. I have challenged Rod's ideas several times, and he always responded by defending his ideas, and not himself, challenging my ideas, not me. Sometimes he persuaded me, sometimes not, but he was always a gentleman. If Rod was heavily into w's, he may have lost a bundle of real or paper profit at the end. If that were me, I'd get another tummy ache every time I thought of it, so why go through the agony? If he shorted at the call and made a bundle, he may still be on vacation, and has forgotten us for a while. I pray that Rod and all of you gain in wisdom and courage that is frequently required because of our decisions. A belated Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to all, Ricardo