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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tom Byron who wrote (5107)	1/2/1998 6:51:00 PM
From: Gary H	Respond to of 116753

Tom, A triple top or head and shoulders, is usually a warning of a down turn. Take a look at the Dow which hit it's #3 top on Dec. 5th and dropped 6+% by Dec. 19th. We have risen about 1% since then. Which way from here? ??????? No bets at this point.

To: Tom Byron who wrote (5107)	1/3/1998 1:47:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116753

Tom: I believe in the old adage "buy the rumor, sell the news." I suspect bonds will peak about the same time the FOMC cuts rates. A false breakout to new highs the most likely scenario. Jimmy Rogers will be shorting heavily. Interesting that there are FAR FEWER bulls on the various gold threads today than two years ago when the yellow was just beginning its long descent. A good example of investor psychology at work -- the lower something goes, the more bearish people become. In retrospect this gold bear reflects two fundamental forces -- greatly increased CB selling and lending plus accelerating deflationary forces in the global economy. But with bullion now below production costs for many mines and these deflationary forces widely recognized, the risk/reward ratio in gold and gold shares has never been better. There are only two forces which could drive gold much lower from here -- further strong INCREASES in CB selling and/or signals to the markets from CBs and governments that they will take no action to arrest the escalating deflationary spiral. Both of these very improbable in my judgement. A sharp drop in CB selling and aggressive actions to reflate the global economy much more likely. My suspicion is that are now in a base building period with many gold shares under accumulation and bullion not going down much more even as the dollar continues to surge. Too soon for aggressive action, but definitely time to buy on dips.