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To: Time Traveler who wrote (43614)	1/2/1998 3:41:00 PM
From: Jim McMannis	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Mr Wang, Seems like your cost estimates are a tad off off these....why? businessweek.com

To: Time Traveler who wrote (43614)	1/5/1998 7:14:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Thanks John >I guess K6 wafer capacity to be at >1,800 per week and P-MMX at >14,000. Then solve a >two-equation-two-unknown matrix. K6cost per wafer is >$3,284, P-MMX is at $2,884, and Socket 7 >packaging/handling/testing >cost is $9. Could you please expalin more what equations you want to solve ? what are the unknowns ? Thanks again

To: Time Traveler who wrote (43614)	1/7/1998 3:28:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

John, thanks. I see that you calculate the (cost/wafer) and (cost/die) in a 2x2 system, assuming (cost/die) common to e.g. k6 and P-mmx. Then you use these calculated values for the previous quarter in order to calculatye the COG for the current quarter leading to a profit (loss) estimate. Is that right ? In doing so you must have assumed Sg&A, R&D constant ? Moreover (sorry I am quite ignorant in the field -:) assuming the yield is the ratio between shipped-cpu's and 13 * wafers/week * dice/wafer I got quite another yield for P-MMX using your stated values or about 55% Thanks for your great posts /Joseph

To: Time Traveler who wrote (43614)	1/20/1998 3:47:00 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

Hi John, with some delay :-) I've built your formulas and numbers for AMD-k6 and intel into an excel spreadsheet, also using www4.techstocks.com I essentially got the same results as you did. In particular I estimate the AMD loss at 55M$ (your value was $52M$, because you assumed #shipped-k6 at 1.6M, whereas I worked it out from yield=31%, 2800 wafers/week, 140 dice/wafer. If I bang in 1.6M into my model I also calculate the $52M loss as you did, so we have the same model). The next question as you remarked is to now do some what-if analysis. First of all, AMD reported a significantly lower loss that we calculate. Have you figured out what are the main factors leading to that ? Thanks again, Joseph