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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Ribeiro who wrote (58197)	10/14/2016 5:42:54 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78748

AMGN. Possibly too expensive if you're just looking at current p/e and concluding that anything with a p/e of 16 is too expensive for a value investment/value investor. I look at it more contextually. P/e is low based on company's past average p/e. (Years '13, '14, '15, but not '08-'12). P/e is low based on my looking at some other big pharma stocks. I point out some recent interest in the stock by presumed value investors Burry and Whitman. Ok, lot of "ifs" here: If earnings in 2017 meet average of analysts' expectations, and if the really good profit margins hold up, and if there's no debacle with the stock market or with a new US President really beating up pharma companies, my estimate of fair value for the company is 20x estimated 2017 earnings ($12.46) or $249/sh. I hope to see the stock at $200 by end of 2017. Helping to propel the stock (assuming all my "ifs" are correct) will be yet another increase in dividend and a continuation of the company's buying back stock. Jmo, and I've been wrong many, many times. (Welcome to the thread!)